Multiple Regression-Based Transactions Evidence Timber Appraisal for Minnesota's State Forests

Abstract

A transactions evidence appraisal system for timber tracts administered by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources was developed and tested. A multiple linear regression model was developed from data on timber tracts sold by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources at auction in fiscal year 1991. This model was tested on fiscal year 1992 auction sales for which prices were known. Factors related to tract sale price included: (1) volume of different products on the site, (2) tract location, (3) distance from the tract to the nearest mill, (4) stocking level, and (5) seasonal harvesting restrictions. The regression model predicted sale prices nearly as well as the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources appraisal system and required substantially less information. North. J. Appl. For. 13(3):129-134.

Effects of sale-specific factors on stumpage prices in Finland

“…Stands with seasonal harvest restrictions have to be harvested during suitable weather conditions, while stands with no seasonal harvest restrictions can be harvested according to demand. MacKay and Baughman (1996), Sydor and Mendell (2008) and Brown et al (2012) also found that harvest restrictions lowered the willingness to pay for standing timber.…”

“…American studies have also been inconclusive regarding the effect of the transportation distance on stumpage prices. Researchers have found that a longer transportation distance lowers prices (Puttock et al 1990;MacKay and Baughman 1996;Niquidet and van Kooten 2006) or else has no effect on stumpage prices (Jackson and McQuillan 1979;Nautiyal et al 1994). Jackson (1986) found that the unpaved transportation distance and the forest haulage distance did not affect stumpage prices.…”

“…Leefers and Potter-Witter 2006;Brown et al 2012) and the distance to the mill (e.g. Puttock et al 1990;MacKay and Baughman 1996) could also influence stumpage prices. Stumpage prices have also been found to change over time and in relation to the season when the sale was made (e.g.…”