Multiple scenario analysis: Introducing uncertainty into the planning process

Abstract

Multiple scenario analysis addresses the dilemma of strategic planners who must have some understanding of the future while recognizing the inadequacy of predicting it.

Climate-resilient and regenerative futures for Latin America and the Caribbean

“…Futurology or futures studies has been consolidated since its inception in the 1930s as an interdisciplinary field that explores the opportunities and challenges of the future to design effective strategies to face them (Caiquo & Adesida, 1994). In this line, a wide variety of future-oriented approaches has been the basis to structure long-term thinking of many nations in the world in the last 40 years (the European Union, Japan, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, Mauritius, New Zealand, Canada, among many others) (Heydinger & Zentner, 1983;Gillwald & Habich, 1991;Van Steenbergen, 1992;Laszlo, 1992;Caiquo & Adesida, 1994;Yoo, 2008;Habegger, 2010;Kuosa, 2011;GCPSE, 2014;Ahmad, 1997;Vittal, 2004;Cameron & Potvin, 2016;Frame, 2018). Consequently, COVID-19 has represented a new call for most countries, sectors, companies, and individuals to consider future studies and re-imagine and re-invent the future (Gonzalez-Perez, 2022b).…”

Five years of strategic environmental assessment efforts at a research university: A case study of an organizational innovation

“…As noted earlier, scanning concepts have also received attention in the literature of higher-education management and planning (Kotler and Murphy, 1981;Heydinger and Zentner, 1983;Heydinger, 1984;Boucher, 1983, 1984;Cope, 1981aCope, ,b, 1987Alfred and Weissman, 1987;Simpson, McGinty, and Morrison, 1987;Morrison and Brock, 1991). Most of this higher-education literature is conceptual and/or prescriptive, however.…”

Η Μέθοδος Των Σεναρίων Ως Εργαλείο Στον Στρατηγικό Περιβαλλοντικό Σχεδιασμό

“…Χαρακτηριστική μέθοδος στην περίπτωση αυτή είναι η Δελφική μέθοδος (Delphi method). Τόσο ον "σκληρές" όσο καν οι "ήπιες" μέθοδοι χαρακτηρίζονται από συμπληρωματικότητα και κατά συνέπεια κρίνεται σκόπιμο να χρησιμοποιούνται από κοινού στην διαδικασία κατασκευής των σεναρίων (Heydinger and Zantner, 1983).…”