This study examined the emergence and subsequent five-year history of "environmental scanning" at a large research university. Proponents of strategic approaches to management in organizations usually recommend environmental scanning as a necessary support for effective decision making. The technique seeks to build systematic understanding of the external environment of the organization, via ongoing reconnaissance of relevant developments in technology, the economy, the political and legal arenas, and the larger society. Scanning's fit with educational organizations may be problematic, however. Over time, scanning efforts on the campus studied here became less theory-based and less centralized, and scanning failed to become an institutionalized innovation. The difficulties in institutionalizing scanning are traced to six factors: limitations posed by organizational structure, an absence of powerful champions, constraints from the organizational culture, the existence of a '~olicy vacuum" surrounding scanning efforts, the daunting demands of such efforts themselves, and questionable articulation with the fundamental goals and mission of the institution. The analysis suggests that the generic scanning model seems unlikely to win acceptance in research universities without substantial modification.Perhaps a majority of college and university campuses have experimented with planning approaches labeled ~'strategic" (McMillen,

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Multiple scenario analysis addresses the dilemma of strategic planners who must have some understanding of the future while recognizing the inadequacy of predicting it.

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