Multipoint Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Observed with Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Wind, and STEREO-A

Möstl, Christian; Weiss, Andreas J.; Reiss, Martin A.; Amerstorfer, Tanja; Bailey, Roger C.; Hinterreiter, Jürgen; Bauer, Maike; Barnes, David; Davies, J. A.; Harrison, R. A.; Forstner, J. L. Freiherr von; Davies, Emma E.; Heyner, Daniel; Horbury, T. S.; Bale, S. D.

doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1964

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…As to in situ measurements, it is clear that the availability of multi‐point observers at different radial distances and heliolongitudes is crucial for analyzing and validating modeling results across the entire inner heliosphere. Given the presence of currently operational spacecraft at six independent locations (i.e., the ones explored in this work), it is important to consider the future opportunities for heliophysics and space weather science via multi‐point studies and coordinated observations (e.g., Hadid et al., 2021; Möstl et al., 2022; Velli et al., 2020). In conclusion, the potential for significant progress in heliophysics and space weather science will be realized as future studies increasingly utilize the multi‐spacecraft capabilities of the Heliophysics System Observatory.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both commenced from the same source region, AR 12790, which was still behind the Earth‐facing eastern limb at the time of Flare1, indicating that its “true” X‐ray class might have been even higher than observed. The first of these eruptions has already gained significant attention, since it was associated with the first widespread SEP event of Solar Cycle 25 and with a CME detected in situ by the PSP and STEREO‐A spacecraft (e.g., Cohen et al., 2021; Giacalone et al., 2021; Kollhoff et al., 2021; Kouloumvakos et al., 2022; Lario et al., 2021; Mason et al., 2021; Mitchell et al., 2021; Möstl et al., 2022; Nieves‐Chinchilla et al., 2022). The configurations of planets and spacecraft within the orbit of Mars on the days of the two flares are shown in Figure 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting

et al. 2022

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Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun-Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360°" using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble." We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shockaccelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.Plain Language Summary Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are phenomena from the Sun that are able to cause significant disturbances at Earth and other planets. Reliable predictions of these events and their effects are among the major goals of space weather forecasts, which aim to tackle all processes related to solar activity that can endanger human technology and society. In recent years, the breadth of space weather science has started to encompass other locations than Earth, ranging from all solar system planets to spacecraft scattered throughout space. In this work, we test our current capabilities in predicting space weather events in the inner solar system (i.e., within the orbit of Mars) for a period in late 2020. We use a chain of models that are able to simulate the background solar wind as well as transient phenomena such as CMEs and SEPs, and compare our results with spacecraft measurements from six well-separated locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that our current forecasting tools, despite their limitations, can successfully provide reasonable predictions of both CMEs and SEPs, especially out to several tens of degrees around the corresponding eruption source region on the Sun.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting

et al. 2022

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“…For the STEREO‐A and STEREO‐B datasets, as well as the reduced Wind data set, we used the HELIO4CAST ICMECAT (Möstl et al., 2020, 2022). Guided by the criteria in Nieves‐Chinchilla et al.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Automatic Detection of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Wind In Situ Data

et al. 2022

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Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the interplanetary counterpart of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Continually interacting with planetary environments, these impactful manifestations of solar activity drive the most extreme forms of space weather in our solar system and are not yet fully understood. Nevertheless, their geoeffectiveness and capability to trigger magnetic storms have societal impacts, which cannot be disregarded. Automatically detecting ICMEs in solar wind in situ data is a crucial part for accurately forecasting these events and their consequences, and significantly contributes to the way statistical studies of ICME parameters can be carried out.Initial studies (Burlaga et al., 1981;Gosling et al., 1973;Klein & Burlaga, 1982) and consecutive investigations of in situ measurements (Kilpua et al., 2017) led to a more thorough understanding of the typical appearance of ICMEs. Figure 1 depicts an example event exhibiting the typical signatures of an ICME featuring a magnetic cloud (MC), notwithstanding the existence of events without the presence of aforementioned structure (Rouillard, 2011). The top panel shows a smooth rotation of the magnetic field components and an enhanced

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On the utility of flux rope models for CME magnetic structure below 30R⊙

Lynch

Al-Haddad

et al. 2022

Advances in Space Research

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Multipoint Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Observed with Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Wind, and STEREO-A

Cited by 3 publications

References 49 publications

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real‐Time Space Weather Forecasting

Automatic Detection of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Wind In Situ Data

On the utility of flux rope models for CME magnetic structure below 30R⊙

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