Muslim Youth Unemployment and Expat Jihadism - Bored to Death?

Gouda, Moamen; Marktanner, Marcus

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2838796

Cited by 7 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Figure 3: Terrorist attacks related to ISIS and groups that declared allegiance to ISIS (December -2016 Study 1 allows drawing several conclusions. In line with previous studies (Benmelech and Klor 2018;Gouda and Marktanner 2019), variation in foreign fighters flows is predicted by variation in the social experiences of individuals in their country of residence. Besides, variation in ISIS affiliated terrorism is mainly predicted by the organization's target selection strategy, even when perpetrators are national citizens.…”

supporting

confidence: 88%

“…The data inevitably suffer from limitations such as estimates biases but also the lack of government official counts for some countries. However, to our knowledge, this source provides the most systematical and accurate estimates of foreign fighters flows, and is the reference database for cross-national comparisons of foreign fighters flows (Benmelech andKlor 2018, Gouda andMarktanner 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As we have no data on the unemployment rate of Sunni populations, we follow Gouda and Marktanner (2019) by computing the interaction between these two variables, a factor they found to correlate with the number of foreign fighters joining ISIS. To analyze the influence of Sunnis discriminations, we follow previous studies on the terrorism-discrimination nexus (Piazza 2011;Piazza 2012;Choi and Piazza 2017;Ghatak and Prins 2017;Ghatak, 2016) by relying on the Minorities at Risk Database (Minorities at Risk Project 2009).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The second identified predictor of individual violence is opportunity costs, meaning that individuals with little economic perspectives are more likely to mobilize into violence (Caruso and Schneider 2011). To translate this finding at the macro level and apply it to the the specific case of ISIS violence, we examine the relationship between patterns of jihadist violence and country-level rate of unemployment among Muslim youth, a factor already found as positively associated with the number of foreign fighters (Gouda and Marktanner 2019;Verwinp 2016).…”

Section: Mobilizations and Target Selection: Conceptualizing Individual Agency In The Globalization Of Jihadmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Jihadism without borders: The rise of foreign fighters, affiliated terrorists and lone wolves outside civil wars

Egger¹,

Berton

Varaine

2020

Preprint

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<p>The globalization of jihad has taken various patterns ranging from the lone involvement in deadly attacks at home, violence as an affiliated terrorist or joining a foreign insurgency. Yet, the likelihood of violent engagement and the patterns it takes considerably vary across countries. This article aims to explain such cross-national variation. We emphasize how the level of perpetrator’s agency over two decisions - mobilization and target selection – is reflected in socio-economic conditions and foreign military interventionism that differ across countries. Consistently with our hypotheses, our analysis – focusing on global jihadism in support of ISIS (2014-2016) - shows that differences in the socio-economic conditions of Sunni Muslims explain the variation in jihadist mobilization, while varying levels of anti-ISIS foreign military interventionism explains variation in the selection of lone and affiliated terrorists targets. We further generalize these findings for non-ISIS jihadist domestic attacks (1992-2006). </p>

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supporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mobilizations and Target Selection: Conceptualizing Individual Agency In The Globalization Of Jihadmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Jihadism without borders: The rise of foreign fighters, affiliated terrorists and lone wolves outside civil wars

Egger¹,

Berton

Varaine

2020

Preprint

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“…This finding resonates with Krueger (2006) who shows that countries with limited civil liberties were likely to have more citizens joining the Iraqi insurgency. Other studies find no effect of democracy (Gouda & Marktanner, 2019 or political freedom (Pokalova, 2019) on IS recruitment.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 90%

Does democracy or personal freedom affect the flow and return of IS foreign fighters?

Gouda

Hanafy

2021

Eur J Crim Policy Res

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A considerable number of foreign fighters who joined the Islamic State (IS) came from developed countries enjoying high levels of democracy and personal freedom. Even after the demise of the Islamic State, the IS "returnees" remain a source of severe security risk globally. Many countries, especially those with a considerable number of IS fighters and returnees, face the challenge of striking the right balance between protecting national security against IS terrorism and preserving fundamental democratic institutions. This paper examines the effect of democracy and personal freedom on foreign fighters joining IS in Syria and Iraq. We also examine whether democracy and/or personal freedom affect the fraction of IS fighters returning home. Whereas the effect of democracy appears to be inconclusive, our cross-country regressions show that countries with a higher level of personal freedom (i) had a significantly larger fraction of their population joining IS, and (ii) receive a significantly larger percentage share of returning IS fighters. Our results are robust across different model specifications and account for possible collinearity concerns.

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Cognitive and behavioral radicalization: A systematic review of the putative risk and protective factors

Wolfowicz

Litmanovitz

Weisburd

et al. 2021

Campbell Systematic Reviews

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Background Two of the most central questions in radicalization research are, (1) why do some individuals radicalize when most of those from the same groups or exposed to similar conditions do not? and (2) why do radicalized individuals turn to radical violence while the majority remain inert? It has been suggested that the answer to both questions lie in the cumulative and interactive effects of a range of risk factors. While risk assessment and counter‐radicalization take a risk‐protective factor approach, there is widespread debate as to what these factors are and which are most important. Objectives This review has two primary objectives. 1) To identify what the putative risk and protective factors for different radicalization outcomes are, without any predeterminations. 2) To synthesize the evidence and identify the relative magnitude of the effects of different factors. The review's secondary objectives are to: 1) Identify consistencies in the estimates of factors across different radicalization outcomes. 2) Identify whether any significant heterogeneity exists within factors between (a) geographic regions, and (b) strains of radicalizing ideologies. Search Methods Over 20 databases were searched for both published and gray literature. In order to provide a more comprehensive review, supplementary searches were conducted in two German and one Dutch database. Reference harvesting was conducted from previous reviews and contact was made with leading researchers to identify and acquire missing or unpublished studies. Selection Criteria The review included observational studies assessing the outcomes of radical attitudes, intentions, and/or radical behaviors in OECD countries and which provided sufficient data to calculate effect sizes for individual‐level risk and protective factors. Data Collection and Analysis One‐hundred and twenty‐seven studies, containing 206 samples met the inclusion criteria and provided 1302 effect sizes pertaining to over 100 different factors. Random effects meta‐analyses were carried out for each factor, and meta‐regression and moderator analysis were used to explore differences across studies. Results Studies were primarily cross‐sectional, with samples representing 20 countries OECD countries. Most studies examined no specific radicalizing ideology, while others focussed on specific ideologies (e.g., Islamist, right‐wing, and left‐wing ideologies). The studies generally demonstrated low risk of bias and utilized validated or widely acceptable measures for both indicators and outcomes. With some exceptions, sociodemographic factors tend to have the smallest estimates, with larger estimates for experiential and attitudinal factors, followed by traditional criminogenic and psychological factors. Authors' Conclusions While sociodemographic factors are the most commonly examined factors (selective availability), they also tend to have the smallest estimates. So too, attitudinal and even experiential factors, do not have effect sizes of the magnitude that could lead to significa...

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Muslim Youth Unemployment and Expat Jihadism - Bored to Death?

Cited by 7 publications

References 28 publications

Jihadism without borders: The rise of foreign fighters, affiliated terrorists and lone wolves outside civil wars

Jihadism without borders: The rise of foreign fighters, affiliated terrorists and lone wolves outside civil wars

Does democracy or personal freedom affect the flow and return of IS foreign fighters?

Cognitive and behavioral radicalization: A systematic review of the putative risk and protective factors

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