Myths of the future and scenario archetypes

Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future

“…Finally, Boschetti et al, () administered a survey on perceptions of the future to 950 Australian citizens, and also identified a substantial overlap between the myths of the future reported by the survey's participants and the archetypes consistent in the futures studies literature. The myths: social crisis, eco crisis, techno‐optimism, power and economic inequality , and social transformation closely mirror the archetypes of collapse (Dator's), high tech transformation (Schulz's) and transformation (Dator's).…”

“…The dictionary is available in the Appendix. It has four categories, one for every scenario archetype as documented in the futures studies literature (Bengston et al, 2016;Bezold, 2009;Boschetti et al, 2016;Dator, 1998Dator, , 2009Hunt et al, 2012;Inayatullah, 2008;MacDonald, 2012;Schultz, 2001):…”

“…Step 4) Sentiment analysis (optional) included unambiguous tokens of its respective theme (Laver & Garry, 2000), which, in this case, are the four scenario archetypes, by consulting the relevant futures studies literature about scenario archetypes (Bezold, 2009;Boschetti et al, 2016;Dator, 1998Dator, , 2009Hunt et al, 2012;Inayatullah, 2008;MacDonald, 2012;Schultz, 2001), and by seeking expert feedback (see Acknowledgements section), omitting those words that could be present in more than one scenarios, for example, the word "value" could be representative of both the discipline scenario (value of sustainability), and of the transformation scenario (a transformation of human values). Therefore, we have omitted this word from both categories of the dictionary.…”

“…All of the global scenarios were found to be representative of one of the following six narratives: a future of continuous growth and supremacy of market forces; a future of heavy policy regulation deployed globally to achieve sustainable progress and economic stability; a global paradigmatic shift in human values towards solidarity, greater access to human rights for all and reduced consumerism; a future of autonomous, local self-reliant communities; and a worst case scenario, either in the form of increased inequalities and few enclaves of the rich confronting widespread masses of indigent individuals, or of total civil disorder and unrest(Hunt et al, 2012). One can easily see the correspondence with the other scenarios archetypes in the future studies literature mentioned above.Finally,Boschetti et al, (2016) administered a survey on perceptions of the future to 950 Australian citizens, and also identified a substantial overlap between the myths of the future reported by the survey's participants and the archetypes consistent in the futures studies literature. The myths: social crisis, eco crisis, techno-optimism, power and economic inequality, and social transformation closely mirror the archetypes of collapse (Dator's), high tech transformation (Schulz's) and transformation (Dator's).…”

Archetyping shared socioeconomic pathways across scales: an application to central Asia and European case studies

“…The analysis assumes that STEEP drivers are influential at both local and global scales (Hunt et al 2012, Wardropper et al 2016), but local stakeholder perceptions of change may diverge from the global pathways (Wardropper et al 2016). Cultural theory facilitates systematic interpretation of beliefs about society and nature at each scenario scale (Boschetti et al 2016).…”