1981
DOI: 10.1017/s0094837300003833
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Natural clades differ from “random” clades: simulations and analyses

Abstract: Using computer simulations and analytic calculations, we have evaluated whether conspicuous expansions and contractions of natural clades may have represented chance fluctuations that occurred while probabilities of speciation and extinction remained equal and constant. Our results differ from those of previous workers, who have not scaled generating parameters empirically at the species level. We have found that the waxing and waning of many real clades have almost certainly resulted from changes in probabili… Show more

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Cited by 80 publications
(56 citation statements)
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“…The phenomenon of extinction was considered, for example, in Gould et al (1977), Stanley et al (1981), Nee et al (1992Nee et al ( , 1994aNee et al ( ,b, 1995Nee et al ( , 2001), Mooers & Heard (1997) and Heard & Mooers (2002).…”
Section: Multi-rate Evolutionary Model: Description Discussion and Smentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The phenomenon of extinction was considered, for example, in Gould et al (1977), Stanley et al (1981), Nee et al (1992Nee et al ( , 1994aNee et al ( ,b, 1995Nee et al ( , 2001), Mooers & Heard (1997) and Heard & Mooers (2002).…”
Section: Multi-rate Evolutionary Model: Description Discussion and Smentioning
confidence: 99%
“…1973; Raup and Gould 1974; Gould et al. 1977; Raup 1977; Stanley et al. 1981) in that it simultaneously controls the growth of the random clade at the local (i.e.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Macroevolutionary models of the kind developed by Raup et al (1973) and Wassersug et al (1979) incorporating various spatial and other constraints and parameterized against the fossil record (cf. Stanley et al, 1981) should be valuable for assessing which, if any, of the ecological factors are sufficient to force onshore-offshore faunal replacement. Such models might also suggest more plausible explanations for the changes in diversity, taxa, and communities that resulted from the Ordovician radiations.…”
Section: Mechanisms Of Onshore-offshore Changementioning
confidence: 99%