Natural Disasters and Political Participation: The Case of Japan and the 2011 Triple Disaster

Abstract

What effect do natural disasters have on political participation? Some argue that natural disasters decrease political participation because of the way they reduce individual and group resources. Others argue that they stimulate political participation by creating new social norms. Previous studies have been limited both by their focus on a specific disaster type and a lack of regional variation. This article advances the literature by assessing the effect of the 2011 triple disaster in Japan on political participation at both the individual and district level. Drawing on multiple sources of data, I use a difference-in-differences identification strategy to show that the 2011 triple disaster in Japan resulted in a 6 percent increase in participation in political groups in regions heavily affected by the disaster, and a 2.5 percent increase in voter turnout in districts in prefectures that were significantly affected by the disaster. The results also show that the effect at the individual level is largely confined to individuals with large social networks, suggesting that the effect of natural disasters on political participation is a combination of their direct and indirect impact on variables that operate through different subpopulations. Directions for future studies are suggested.

Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas

“…For example, wildfire exposure has a stronger effect on climate attitudes among respondents who believe in the scientific consensus around climate change (Lacroix, Gifford, and Rush 2019). Alternatively, climate-related political behaviors may be overshadowed by other factors that influence political preferences during crises, including public evaluation of government performance (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011;Malhotra and Kuo 2008) and political participation (Jenkins 2019). All the same, empirically many members of the public have linked wildfires to climate change (Brenkert-Smith, Meldrum, and Champ 2015), with a recent survey showing 69% of Californians believe that climate change is making wildfires worse.…”

More a Swell than a Ripple: The Persistent Impact of the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami on Voter Turnout

“…While some studies have found that natural disasters have a positive effect on political participation (Aldrich 2012;Chen 2013;Fair et al 2017;Jenkins 2019), others have found a negative effect (Sinclair, Hall, and Alvarez 2011;Rudolph and Kuhn 2018;Marsh 2022) and yet others have found no effect (Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier 2016).…”

“…In an influential study, (Blattman 2009) found that those affected by the violent conflict in Uganda (to the extent that they were abducted) had a higher propensity to participate in politics. It has also been argued that the mechanism of post-traumatic growth could explain the increased voter turnout in postdisaster elections (Fair et al 2017;Jenkins 2019). The argument that can be derived from the theory of post-traumatic growth is therefore that individuals who experience trauma following a natural disaster (which, as demonstrated above, are highly political events) also are more likely to participate in politics, because of increased personal strength and subsequent increased internal political efficacy.…”

“…Moreover, existing empirical evidence are relatively scarce and often contradictory. While researchers such as Aldrich (2012), Chen (2013), Fair et al (2017), andJenkins (2019) have identified positive effects of disaster exposure on political participation, others like Marsh (2022), Sinclair, Hall, and Alvarez (2011), and Rudolph and Kuhn (2018) have observed predominantly negative effects. 2 To move beyond this theoretical and empirical impasse, we propose that to thoroughly understand the impact of experiencing a natural disaster on political participation one needs to recognize that disaster exposure is a compound treatment.…”

Motivated to vote? The effect of flooding on political participation

“…There are some notable exceptions, which provide mixed results. While some studies indicate that extreme weather events did not affect turnout (Bodet, Thomas, and Tessier, 2016; Lasala‐Blanco, Shapiro, and Rivera‐Burgos, 2017), others report negative (Rudolph and Kuhn, 2018; Zelin and Smith, 2023) or positive (Fair et al, 2017; Jenkins, 2019) effects on electoral participation. The most sophisticated study to date, by Sinclair, Hall, and Alvarez (2011), concludes that in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina (2005), turnout decreased on average but increased in the most affected areas.…”