2011
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017601
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Natural History of Tuberculosis: Duration and Fatality of Untreated Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV Negative Patients: A Systematic Review

Abstract: BackgroundThe prognosis, specifically the case fatality and duration, of untreated tuberculosis is important as many patients are not correctly diagnosed and therefore receive inadequate or no treatment. Furthermore, duration and case fatality of tuberculosis are key parameters in interpreting epidemiological data.Methodology and Principal FindingsTo estimate the duration and case fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients we reviewed studies from the pre-chemotherapy era. Untreated … Show more

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Cited by 445 publications
(323 citation statements)
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“…Although the mortality rate is surprisingly high, it is consistent with previous studies in sub-Saharan Africa, 6 long-term projections from our parent prospective study at this site, 1 and a recent meta-analysis on the natural history of TB. 8 We suspect the high mortality observed was related to the combination of drug resistance in this heavily treated cohort, 1,5 and the effect of HIV infection-as antiretroviral therapy (ART) was not widely available in Uganda at the time. Importantly, almost half of the deaths occurred in the first 2 years after starting retreatment and survival within this period was similar by HIV status, suggesting that early mortality was mainly associated with TB whereas HIV infection was responsible for longer term mortality.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…Although the mortality rate is surprisingly high, it is consistent with previous studies in sub-Saharan Africa, 6 long-term projections from our parent prospective study at this site, 1 and a recent meta-analysis on the natural history of TB. 8 We suspect the high mortality observed was related to the combination of drug resistance in this heavily treated cohort, 1,5 and the effect of HIV infection-as antiretroviral therapy (ART) was not widely available in Uganda at the time. Importantly, almost half of the deaths occurred in the first 2 years after starting retreatment and survival within this period was similar by HIV status, suggesting that early mortality was mainly associated with TB whereas HIV infection was responsible for longer term mortality.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…Natural history of disease studies showed that around 70% of sputum smear positive HIV-negative pulmonary TB cases died within 10 years , and 20% of culture positive (but smear negative) cases died within 10 years [4].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, concomitant diseases, acquired immunodeficiencies (5), or treatments with immunosuppressive drugs may facilitate M. tuberculosis reactivation (6) causing postprimary TB, a severe disease that has a chronic and often fatal course in the absence of adequate treatment (7).…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%