Near-Field ETAS Constraints and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment

Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Glasscoe, Margaret

doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0785-z

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Similar patterns of activity would then be searched in observed earthquake activity with the idea of using these as the inputs to forecast probabilities. Yoder et al (2015) introduced a method of estimating the near-field (near the rupture boundary and immediately following the mainshock) spatial density and temporal rate of aftershocks based on a fractal dimension D > 0 model of mainshock and aftershock events. From this model, the ETAS parameter space can be tightly constrained to facilitate accurate estimates of aftershock rates and probabilities, based on earthquake scaling relations, with minimal operator input and data fitting.…”

Section: Medium-term Forecasts Based On Earthquake Simulations Using ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model was then compared to six 6 < M < 9 recent earthquakes, followed by a discussion of the implications of this model both with respect to earthquake physics and as they relate to seismic hazard assessment. Note that this model is particularly well suited to automated, web-deployed, and rapid response seismic hazard applications (Yoder et al 2015).…”

Section: Medium-term Forecasts Based On Earthquake Simulations Using ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model discussed in Yoder et al (2015) is based on the BASS-ETAS model for simulating earthquake seismicity, specifically including and focusing on aftershocks. The model is initiated with a 'seed' catalog of one or more earthquakes.…”

Section: Medium-term Forecasts Based On Earthquake Simulations Using ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems: new approaches to forecasting and nowcasting of earthquakes

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Charles Richter's observation that 'only fools and charlatans predict earthquakes,' reflects the fact that despite more than 100 years of effort, seismologists remain unable to do so with reliable and accurate results. Meaningful prediction involves specifying the location, time, and size of an earthquake before it occurs to greater precision than expected purely by chance from the known statistics of earthquakes in an area. In this context, 'forecasting' implies a prediction with a specification of a probability of the time, location, and magnitude. Two general approaches have been used. In one, the rate of motion accumulating across faults and the amount of slip in past earthquakes is used to infer where and when future earthquakes will occur and the shaking that would be expected. Because the intervals between earthquakes are highly variable, these long-term forecasts are accurate to no better than a hundred years. They are thus valuable for earthquake hazard mitigation, given the long lives of structures, but have clear limitations. The second approach is to identify potentially observable changes in the Earth that precede earthquakes. Various precursors have been suggested, and may have been real in certain cases, but none have yet proved to be a general feature preceding all earthquakes or to stand out convincingly from the normal variability of the Earth's behavior. However, new types of data, models, and computational power may provide avenues for progress using machine learning that were not previously available. At present, it is unclear whether deterministic earthquake prediction is possible. The frustrations of this search have led to the observation that (echoing Yogi Berra) 'it is difficult to predict earthquakes, especially before

show abstract

Section: Medium-term Forecasts Based On Earthquake Simulations Using ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Medium-term Forecasts Based On Earthquake Simulations Using ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems: new approaches to forecasting and nowcasting of earthquakes

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The numbers of shortest N rbÀshortest and longest N rbÀlongest recordbreaking intervals are counted in the rightmost two columns (22) and (21) For most of this paper, we use Dk % 1:76 (HELM- STETTER, 2003;KAGAN, 2002;YODER et al, 2014a;PEGLER and DAS, 1996). As discussed in the Sect.…”

Section: Record-breaking and Omori-interval Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(12). It may be possible to estimate earthquake incidence by convolving RBTS with epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS)-based models (OGATA, 1988;YODER et al, 2012bYODER et al, , 2014a. More sophisticated physics-based earthquake simulators, for example Virtual California (VC) (YIKILMAZ et al, 2010(YIKILMAZ et al, , 2011RUNDLE et al, 2006) seem to be an increasingly attractive option.…”

Section: Quantitative Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Record-Breaking Intervals: Detecting Trends in the Incidence of Self-Similar Earthquake Sequences

Yoder

Rundle

2014

Pure Appl. Geophys.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We introduce a method of resolving temporal incidence trends in earthquake sequences. We have developed a catalog partitioning method based on canonical earthquake scaling relationships, and have further developed a metric based on recordbreaking interval (RBI) statistics to resolve increasing and decreasing seismicity in time series of earthquakes. We calculated the RBI metric over fixed-length sequences of earthquake intervals and showed that the length of those sequences is related to the magnitude of the earthquake to which the method is sensitivelonger sequences resolve large earthquakes, shorter sequences resolve small-magnitude events. This sequence length effectively constitutes a local temporal catalog constraint, and we show that spatial constraints can be defined from rupture length scaling. We have applied the method to several high-profile earthquakes and have shown that it consistently resolves aftershock sequences after a period of accelerating seismicity before the targeted mainshock. The method also suggests a minimum detectable (forecastable) mainshock magnitude on the basis of the catalog's minimum completeness magnitude m c .

show abstract

Forecasting Earthquakes with the Virtual Quake Simulator: Regional and Fault-Partitioned Catalogs

Yoder

Schultz

Heien

et al. 2015

International Association of Geodesy Symposia

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Near-Field ETAS Constraints and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment

Cited by 8 publications

References 27 publications

The complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems: new approaches to forecasting and nowcasting of earthquakes

The complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems: new approaches to forecasting and nowcasting of earthquakes

Record-Breaking Intervals: Detecting Trends in the Incidence of Self-Similar Earthquake Sequences

Forecasting Earthquakes with the Virtual Quake Simulator: Regional and Fault-Partitioned Catalogs

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About