Near-present and future distribution of Anopheles albimanus in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Basin modeled with climate and topographic data

Abstract

BackgroundAnopheles albimanus is among the most important vectors of human malaria in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Basin (M-C). Here, we use topographic data and 1950–2000 climate (near present), and future climate (2080) layers obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to project the probability of the species’ presence, p(s), using the species distribution model MaxEnt.ResultsThe projected near-present distribution parameterized with 314 presence points related well to the known geographic distribution in the study region. Different model experiments suggest that the range of An. albimanus based on near-present climate surfaces covered at least 1.27 million km2 in the M-C, although 2080 range was projected to decrease to 1.19 million km2. Modeled p(s) was generally highest in Mesoamerica where many of the original specimens were collected. MaxEnt projected near-present maximum elevation at 1,937 m whereas 2080 maximum elevation was projected at 2,118 m. 2080 climate scenarios generally showed increased p(s) in Mesoamerica, although results varied for northern South America and no major range expansion into the mid-latitudes was projected by 2080.ConclusionsMaxEnt experiments with near present and future climate data suggest that An. albimanus is likely to invade high-altitude (>2,000 m) areas by 2080 and therefore place many more people at risk of malaria in the M-C region even though latitudinal range expansion may be limited.

Using the MaxEnt model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Aurasian Aleppo pine distribution in Algeria

“…Although it is one of the more recently developed methods compared to other traditional models, such as generalised linear models or generalised additive models, the MaxEnt model has been among the most efficient method for predicting species distribution (Elith et al, ; Fuller, Ahumada, Quinones, Herrera, & Beier, ; Reiss, Cunze, König, Neumann, & Kröncke, ). MaxEnt is also one of the most commonly used methods for projecting shifts in species distribution under various climate change scenarios.…”

Geometric morphometric analysis of Colombian Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) reveals significant effect of environmental factors on wing traits and presence of a metapopulation

“…Among Latin American malaria vector mosquitoes, Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann, 1820 is a dominant species (Sinka et al, 2010) and it constitutes one of the main Colombian vectors (Gutiérrez et al, 2008; Montoya-Lerma et al, 2011; Quiñones et al, 1987) typically found in low coastal lands under 400 m (Fleming, 1986), but it has also been recorded at high altitudes (995–1941 m) (González and Martínez, 2006; Martínez-Palacios and Pletsch, 1963). It is a generalist species (Fuller et al, 2012); immature stages develop in a wide variety of breeding sites and can tolerate a wide range of water conditions such as salinity, turbidity and pollution (Faran, 1980; Henderson, 1948). Adult females exhibit plasticity in blood-feeding behavior, biting humans or animals, indoors or outdoors (Olano et al, 1997), and can fly up to 32 km (Breeland, 1972).…”

Bionomics of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) in two villages of the Wayúu people, Riohacha, La Guajira, Colombia

“…Se ha planteado la hipótesis de que el cambio global en el clima generará condiciones desfavorables para An. albimanus en ciertas regiones de Mesoamérica, incluida La Guajira, lo cual podría ocasionar un desplazamiento de la especie a zonas con condiciones más favorables para su desarrollo, aumentando así su rango de distribución geográfica (46). Sin embargo, esta transición hacia un incremento en la temperatura ambiental puede contribuir a aumentar el riesgo de transmisión de la enfermedad debido a que los ciclos gonotróficos se hacen más cortos, y ello se traduce en un mayor número de picaduras (47).…”