Negative-Binomial and quasi-poisson regressions between COVID-19, mobility and environment in São Paulo, Brazil

Ibarra, Sergio; Freitas, Edmílson Dias de; Ropkins, Karl; Dominici, Francesca; Rehbein, Amanda

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2021.112369

Cited by 21 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(64 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Most studies found confirmed associations of pollutants’ concentration with COVID-19 spread or fatalities for various regions such as China, USA, Italy, Netherland, India, and Germany, with higher levels of air pollutants resulting in increased cases and mortality rates during the first wave ( Cole et al, 2020 ; Ogen, 2020 ; Zhu et al, 2020 ). It is interesting to observe that in Sao Paulo, Brazil (tropical zone with 8006 persons per square kilometer population density), a 10 µg/m 3 increase of PM 2.5 results in a risk of 1.140 for COVID-19 cases (Risk value >1 means increased risk for the exposed group) ( Ibarra-Espinosa et al, 2022 ). Such risk is 1.06 times higher than that caused by O 3 ( Ali & Islam, 2020 ; Ibarra-Espinosa et al, 2022 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is interesting to observe that in Sao Paulo, Brazil (tropical zone with 8006 persons per square kilometer population density), a 10 µg/m 3 increase of PM 2.5 results in a risk of 1.140 for COVID-19 cases (Risk value >1 means increased risk for the exposed group) ( Ibarra-Espinosa et al, 2022 ). Such risk is 1.06 times higher than that caused by O 3 ( Ali & Islam, 2020 ; Ibarra-Espinosa et al, 2022 ). Another study indicated that for short-term exposure and a 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 , and O 3 were associated with a 2.24, 1.76, 6.94, and 4.76% increase in the daily COVID-19 cases, respectively ( Ali & Islam, 2020 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spreading under the influence of environmental factors and strategies to tackle the pandemic: A systematic review

Asif

Chen

Stranges

et al. 2022

Sustainable Cities and Society

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spreading under the influence of environmental factors and strategies to tackle the pandemic: A systematic review

Asif

Chen

Stranges

et al. 2022

Sustainable Cities and Society

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…These increasing concentrations were coupled with increasing volumes of mainly commercial vehicles, which represent more than 77% of the emission of this pollutant according to the São Paulo Vehicle Emission Report [18]. According to this analyses, it was possible to infer that the vehicle flows in the MRSP may had a significant impact on PM 2.5 year variations [33]. Overall, the concentration values in the region did not experience visible changes during the entire year.…”

Section: Atmospheric Pollutants (Pm25 Co No2)mentioning

confidence: 93%

“…64,963 of 5 May 2020, SIMI-SP was defined as the official mechanism for combating the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of São Paulo [32]. In this way, the State Government was able to consult mainframe information aggregated by a centralized system with data on citizens' mobility [33]. The isolation index is one of the resources included in SIMI-SP, being made available mainly by telecommunication companies, with their data managed by the Brazilian Association of Telecommunication Resources (ABR Telecom).…”

Section: Isolation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first group of works mainly perform empirical analyses on the effects of social distancing due to COVID-19 from different perspectives [12,23,33,41,42,44,51,56,57]. The second group of reviewed studies considers the analysis of variables determining air quality improvement during COVID-19 confinement, which is particularly relevant for a better understanding of how those variables can be crucial for air quality improvement within the context of urban regions [8,11,17,26,52,58,59].…”

Section: Case Studies Analyzing the Influence Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Air Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Air Quality of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo: Analysis Based on Satellite Data, Monitoring Stations and Records of Annual Average Daily Traffic Volumes on the Main Access Roads to the City

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the air quality of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP). The effects of social distancing are still recent in the society; however, it was possible to observe patterns of environmental changes in places that had adhered transportation measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Thus, from the analysis of the traffic volumes made on some of the main access highways to the MRSP, as well as the monitoring of the levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), directly linked to atmospheric emissions from motor vehicles–which make up about 95% of air polluting agents in the region in different locations–we showed relationships between the improvement in air quality and the decrease in vehicles that access the MRSP. To improve the data analysis, therefore, the isolation index parameter was evaluated to provide daily information on the percentage of citizens in each municipality of the state that was effectively practicing social distancing. The intersection of these groups of data determined that the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the volume of vehicles on the highways by up to 50% of what it was in 2019, with the subsequent recovery of the traffic volume, even surpassing the values from the baseline year. Thus, the isolation index showed a decline of up to 20% between its implementation in March 2020 and December 2020. These data and the way they varied during 2020 allowed to observe an improvement of up to 50% in analyzed periods of the pollutants PM2.5, CO and NO2 in the MRSP. The main contribution of this study, alongside the synergistic use of data from different sources, was to perform traffic flow analysis separately for light and heavy duty vehicles (LDVs and HDVs). The relationships between traffic volume patterns and COVID-19 pollution were analyzed based on time series.

show abstract

Theory and methods of the multiverse: an application for panel-based models

Cantone

Tomaselli

2023

Qual Quant

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Multiverse analysis involves systematically sampling a vast set of model specifications, known as a multiverse, to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the validity of a scientific claim. By fitting these specifications to a sample of observations, statistics are obtained as analytical results. Examining the variability of these statistics across different groups of model specifications helps to assess the robustness of the claim and gives insights into its underlying assumptions. However, the theoretical premises of multiverse analysis are often implicit and not universally agreed upon. To address this, a new formal categorisation of the analytical choices involved in modelling the set of specifications is proposed. This method of indexing the specification highlights that the sampling structure of the multiversal sample does not conform to a model of independent and identically distributed draws of specifications and that it can be modelled as an information network instead. Hamming’s distance is proposed as a measure of network distance, and, with an application to a panel dataset, it is shown how this approach enhances transparency in procedures and inferred claims and that it facilitates the check of implicit parametric assumptions. In the conclusions, the proposed theory of multiversal sampling is linked to the ongoing debate on how to weigh a multiverse, including the debate on the epistemic value of crowdsourced multiverses.

show abstract

Negative-Binomial and quasi-poisson regressions between COVID-19, mobility and environment in São Paulo, Brazil

Cited by 21 publications

References 59 publications

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spreading under the influence of environmental factors and strategies to tackle the pandemic: A systematic review

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spreading under the influence of environmental factors and strategies to tackle the pandemic: A systematic review

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Air Quality of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo: Analysis Based on Satellite Data, Monitoring Stations and Records of Annual Average Daily Traffic Volumes on the Main Access Roads to the City

Theory and methods of the multiverse: an application for panel-based models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About