“Negative Stabilization” and Factors of Population Welfare Dynamics in Post-Crisis Russia

Abstract

Recent years have been characterized by a further drop in real incomes of Russians and the spread of pessimism among them regarding their material situation (after a short-term growth of optimistic expectations during the presidential campaign). The current situation in Russia in this area can be described as “negative stabilization”, because, although the decrease in the population’s incomes has stopped, they have stabilized at a lower level than prior to the crisis of 2014–2016. Groups which differ in the dynamics of their material situation starting from 2014 also differ in the specifics of their composition and positions in the system of monetary and especially non-monetary inequalities. The higher an individual’s place in the social hierarchy of life chances, the higher the likelihood of him being in an upward mobility group and the lower the chances of winding up in a group with downward mobility, and vice versa. For the evolution prospects of Russian society’s stratification model this means an increasing polarization of the mass strata of the population. However, so far these processes proceed at a moderate pace and affect the “top” rather than the “bottom” of these strata. The most significant factors determining Russians’ assessments of the dynamics of their material situation are their health, type of locus-control and planning horizon — personal characteristics that affect the ability of developing and implementing effective adaptation strategies. The high importance of personal factors for the dynamics of one’s material situation indicates the crisis nature of modern Russian society, since for crisis societies personal qualities of an individual are more important for the vector of his mobility than structural factors or human and social capital.