Neizvjesna Demografska Budućnost Hrvatske – Izumiranje I Supstitucija Stanovništva Ili Populacijska Revitalizacija...?

Šterc, Stjepan; Komušanac, Monika

doi:10.5559/di.21.3.05

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…It is necessary to point out that adverse demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina began before the war in 1992, but they intensified be-tween 1992 and 1995 due to war casualties and forced migration (Kadušić et al 2016). It is known that wars represent the largest form of social and demographic destruction and that they have a significant effect on demographic post-war movements (Šterc and Komušanac 2012). However, regarding the decline of the primaryschool-age population in the Federation, all relevant parameters were monitored in the period from 2006 to 2016.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A low birth rate and increased life expectancy cause a significant change in the age composition of any population (Lee 2003), i.e. ageing is a consequence of the decrease in birth rates, natural population decrease, and negative migration balance (Šterc and Komušanac 2012). In the Federation, decreasing birth rates, increasing mortality rates, increased life expectancy, and emigration also influence the ageing of the population.…”

Section: Impact Of Demographic Changes On Primary-school-age Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Primary-school-age population change in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The effects of demographic factors

Kadusic

Smajić

2019

STANOVNISHTVO

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The beginning of the 21st century in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (henceforth referred to as ?the Federation?) has been characterised by a decrease in the primary-school-age population. As such, the main objective of this work is to define and explain the factors that have influenced the decrease in the primary-school-age population in this part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research methodology applied in this work is oriented towards defining the degree of influence of demographic factors on the development of the primary-school-age population in the Federation. By using statistical methods and GIS analysis of statistical data, negative demographic trends were confirmed in the Federation at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. These trends included intensive migration, a decrease in the total number of inhabitants, a decrease in the birth rate, an increased mortality rate, a decreased rate of natural population change, and the ageing of the population. Due to adverse economic, social, political, and other circumstances after 1995, population emigration has been intensified, most noticeably within the population aged between 20 and 40. The most important result of the research is the fact that the decrease in the natural population dynamics and intensive emigration are the most significant factors influencing the decrease in the primary-school-age population in the Federation. Such negative demographic trends influence the primary education system adversely. In the future, it will be necessary to plan and implement a population-revitalisation process as part of the federation?s overall population policy.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impact Of Demographic Changes On Primary-school-age Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Primary-school-age population change in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The effects of demographic factors

Kadusic

Smajić

2019

STANOVNISHTVO

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“…Posljedica je to velikih demografskih promjena u Hrvatskoj od sredine 20. stoljeća koje su primarno bile uvjetovane vanjskim i unutarnjim ekonomskim, političkim i društvenim faktorima (Akrap, 2019), pri čemu »brz prelazak iz agrarnoga u industrijsko društvo postaje temeljni činitelj demografskoga i gospodarskoga zaostajanja velikoga prostora u Hrvatskoj« (Akrap, 2015: 860). Osim što su uočene promjene u dinamici rasta ukupnoga broja stanovnika, ti su faktori utjecali i na vanjsku migraciju stanovništva Hrvatske u okviru bivše državne zajednice, pri čemu je registrirana pozitivna unutrašnja migracijska bilanca s ostalim saveznim republikama i pokrajinama, a s inozemstvom negativna (Šterc i Komušanac, 2012). Glavna odrednica ukupnoga kretanja stanovništva Hrvatske do 1991. godine bila je pozitivna prirodna promjena, dok je, u međupopisnim razdobljima nakon pojave prirodne depopulacije, a zbog »pogoršanja ekonomskih prilika i ratnih zbivanja na hrvatskom prostoru, jačala migracijska komponenta (i iseljavanje i useljavanje) koja je određivala razinu rasta/pada ukupnoga broja stanovnika 2001. i 2011. godine« (Mrđen, 2014: 410).…”

Section: Opći Trendoviunclassified

Recentna imigracija radne snage u Hrvatsku: razmjeri, trendovi, obilježja

Komušanac

2023

MET

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The paper aims to analyse the determinants of international migration among the Croatian population in the recent period following Croatia's entry into the European Union in 2013, with a special focus on the increased immigration to Croatia. The fundamental assumption is that, in addition to emigration from Croatia, the immigration of foreign workers to Croatia is also on the rise. This influx is primarily from economically less developed Asian and African countries. Meanwhile, immigration from the traditional workforce pool, the area of Southeastern Europe, is decreasing significantly. However, this region remains relatively the dominant source of migrants. Workforce immigration to Croatia has been singled out as a separate research unit, which not only examines the scale and basic characteristics of “foreigners” in Croatia but also provides an overview of the factors conditioning the existing relations within the labour market in Croatia. Demographic trends at the state level have significantly affected changes in the working-age and active population in Croatia. This includes a reduction in the work potential of the resident population. In addition to these established changes, other challenges in the labour market, primarily educational and profile-related, can be singled out. In addition to the reduction in the number of the working-age population, there is a structural mismatch between the current supply and demand for jobs. This mismatch results in either a shortage or a surplus of workers in certain industries, consequently contributing to the overall increase in general unemployment among the resident population and/or the need to compensate for the lack of labour through “import”. In 2015, Croatia experienced a very high unemployment rate, close to 43%, among young people up to the age of 25. This figure was twice as high as the average for EU member states. Additionally, there was a significant number of young people in Croatia who were not active in the labour market. Despite having no obstacles and not being included in the education and/ or training system, these individuals were not actively seeking employment either (Obadić, 2017). The total number of persons who immigrated to Croatia from 2016 to 2022 slightly exceeds 220,000, with 70% of them being foreigners. Furthermore, a much faster relative increase in the immigration of foreign citizens was observed compared to the immigration of Croatian citizens, especially in 2021 and 2022. The relative share of 84% of immigrants of working age confirms the assumption that it is primarily a question of workforce migration. This statistical evidence suggests that the arrival of foreigners to work in Croatia constitutes a significant portion of this migration. According to the total number of foreigners who immigrated to Croatia and their country of origin, three geographical areas stand out: other European countries (countries outside the EEA) with almost 67%, Asian countries (14,35%) and European Union countries with 13,66%. The largest relative increase in immigration was registered from Asia. However, in absolute terms, more than 105,000 foreigners immigrated to Croatia from other European countries, primarily from BiH, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, etc. (2016–2022). The analysis of external migration from 2016 to today indicates a number of changes in migration processes, including their character, nature, volume, etc. They will affect the main sources of foreign labour in Croatia, signalling the beginning of the substitution of the traditional, regional labour pool with new emitting areas, i.e. workers from economically disadvantaged Asian and African countries. In 2021, the majority of foreigners, accounting for 35%, immigrated to the City of Zagreb and Zagreb County, while 37% chose the six “Adriatic” counties, mostly Split-Dalmatia, Istria, and Primorje-Gorski Kotar County. Although foreign immigration is significantly lower in other counties, the noteworthy achievement of a positive migration balance “with foreigners” in all counties in 2021 confirms the assumption that this determinant will increasingly impact the total balance of counties with foreign countries. In the last three years, slightly more than 31,000 requests from citizens of EEA member states for temporary residence in Croatia were approved. However, based on the purpose of stay, only 7,000 requests were approved for work in Croatia. From 2017 to 2020, 26,500 people met the conditions for permanent residence in Croatia, predominantly Germans, Slovenians, Italians and Austrians of retirement age who are extensively investing in real estate along the Adriatic. In conclusion, it should be noted how the two characteristic processes of increased immigration to Croatia in the last 5 years differ. The immigration of foreigners from non-European countries is primarily related to labour force migration, which is still in its early stages. On the other hand, there is the specific immigration of citizens of EU member states who, in their retirement age, immigrate to Croatia without work potential. The absolute and relative relations between these two groups will ultimately affect the total migration balance of “foreigners”

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“…The main characteristics of the population of Croatia are depopulation, natural decrease, population ageing, negative net migration and increased life expectancy (Wertheimer-Baletić, 2004;Nejašmić, 2008;Šterc andKomušanac, 2012, Čipin andMeđimurec, 2019). The period TFR in Croatia fell below the replacement level in the late 1960s (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crude Birth Rate in Croatia: local-scale variability, spatial patterns, and trends from 2001 to 2020

Belić

2023

Hrv. geogr. glas.

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This study investigates the spatio-temporal variability of the Crude Birth Rate in Croatia between 2001 and 2020. The local-scale data covers 556 spatial units. Additionally, the data covers categories by type and size of unit and their respective regions. The study is based on descriptive and spatial statistics (Global and Local Moran's indices). The results reveal two main processes in the long-term trends of birth rates in Croatia: convergence at a low birth rate and a significant decrease in spatial autocorrelation. The most intense convergence took place between 2009 and 2017, mainly overlapping with the economic recession period. The process was also observed at the regional level. Spatial autocorrelation decreased between 2001 and 2016, followed by a slight increase. In the initial years, the main cause could be modernization, and later the economic recession and the subsequent emigration wave that followed Croatia's accession to the European Union. Finally, the continuation of the polarization between the center and the periphery is evident.

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Neizvjesna Demografska Budućnost Hrvatske – Izumiranje I Supstitucija Stanovništva Ili Populacijska Revitalizacija...?

Cited by 6 publications

References 9 publications

Primary-school-age population change in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The effects of demographic factors

Primary-school-age population change in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The effects of demographic factors

Recentna imigracija radne snage u Hrvatsku: razmjeri, trendovi, obilježja

Crude Birth Rate in Croatia: local-scale variability, spatial patterns, and trends from 2001 to 2020

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