Net Migration, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle*

Abstract

"An empirical test of the effects of exogenous shocks upon a region's population size is conducted in the framework of an equilibrium locational model. The model emphasizes the separation of endogenous from exogenous factors, a point omitted in most empirical studies of aggregate migration. Exogenous changes are manifested in the local relative cost of living and the local relative unemployment rate. Hypotheses are tested using a national sample of youth, in addition to census, data [for the United States]. Surprisingly, a simple measure of the size of shock to a regional economy has the greatest explanatory power compared to more sophisticated measures based on prior business cycles."

Cohort and Period Effects in U.S. Migration: How Demographic and Economic Cycles Influence the Migration Schedule

“…Numerous studies have documented the influence of economic conditions on mobility rates, namely that periods of expansion are associated with high migration rates while recessions tend to dampen migration (Clark 1982;Greenwood et al 1986;Haurin and Haurin 1988;Long 1988;Milne 1993;Plane 1989Plane , 1994. Various reasons are advanced to explain this empirical association.…”

Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation

“…Their analysis emphasizes that individuals whose skills are more mismatched with the reward structure of their current state of residence are those most likely to leave that state and relocate to states that offer higher rewards for their skills. Other papers in the literature have similarly considered the relationship between migration and local labor market conditions as estimated by unemployment rates (see, e.g., Basker, 2003, who uses CPS data;Nakosteen et al, 2008, who use data from Statistics Sweden; and Haurin and Haurin, 1988, who use the NLSY and CPS).…”

“…These datasets include the CPS (Basker, 2003, andBlank, 1988), the decennial Census data (Wozniak, 2010;Malamud and Wozniak, 2010;Whisler et al, 2008;Herzog and Schlottmann, 1986), the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, based on Census data Schlottmann, 1983, andRosenbloom andSundstrom, 2003), the NLSY (Haurin and Haurin, 1988;Yankow, 2002Yankow, /2003Yankow, , 2003Borjas et al, 1992), and the PSID (Rodgers andRodgers, 2000, andBlackburn et al, 2010). Additionally, studies have used the Social Security Administration's Continuous Work History Sample (Greenwood, 1986) and data from the IRS (Davies et al, 2001).…”

“…Saks and Wozniak (2007) Response of migration flows to national and local economic CPS and IRS conditions Basker (2003) Relationship between migration and local labor market CPS conditions, unemployment rates Haurin and Haurin (1988) Relationship between migration and local labor market NLSY and CPS conditions, unemployment rates Borjas, Bronars, and Trejo (1992) Effect of interstate differences in returns to skills on NLSY migration decision Davies, Greenwood, and Li (2001) Relationship between migration and local labor market IRS conditions, unemployment rates Herzog and Schlottman (1983) Relationship between migration and local labor market Places Rated Almanac conditions, unemployment rates Whisler et al (2008) Role of quality-of-life indicators on migration decision Census and Places Rated Almanac Herzog and Schlottman (1986) Role of quality-of-life indicators on migration decision Census Wozniak (2010) Relationship between migrant educational attainment and Census labor market demand in new location Nakosteen et al (2008) Relationship between migration and local labor market Statistics Sweden conditions, unemployment rates…”

Community social status effects on migration outcomes

“…A younger individual is more likely to migrate than a middle aged or older person. As individuals age they are less likely to move except during the years around retirement (Cadwallader 1992;Haurin and Haurin 1988). Those under age 18 or people over 65 years of age are the least mobile (Greenwood 1975).…”