Network analysis of the European natural gas infrastructure to quantify its performance in long-duration pipeline shutdown scenarios

Abstract

Nowadays, a fundamental requirement for a prosperous society is a reliable energy supply. The complex network theory provides an excellent basis to explore the functionality of such systems in response to severe component failures. In this case study, the European natural gas system is analyzed. The actual natural gas consumption is geospatially allocated to the infrastructure network. The network is abstracted and the flow capacity of the network is computed. A scenario analysis is conducted in order to identify the impact of storage facilities on the actual maximum possible flow. Furthermore, the natural gas supply shortage caused by each pipeline in case of a potential pipeline shutdown or failure is estimated. Finally, potential strategic locations of storage facilities for a more reliable natural gas network are identified. Natural gas is transported and distributed by a well-developed system. The design of such a system requires long-term planning and large infrastructure investments. This kind of investments locks the capital in long-term contracts involving often policy decisions and agreements on national or regional levels (e.g. Carvalho et al., 2014, Mišík and Nosko, 2017). The European natural gas system became over time a large infrastructure network with many components, such as compressor stations, storage facilities, gas processing plants, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, aiming at assuring high reliability of the supply system. These components should be well planned and coordinated to guarantee a continous and adequate natural gas flow. The natural gas demand cannot be covered by the European countries' available natural gas resources (BP, 2016). Therefore, it is necessary that natural gas is transported by pipelines from the East and South to Europe. Complementary, natural gas is also imported via LNG terminals. The natural gas infrastructure network has to be able to compensate for potential pipeline shutdowns or failures, among others. This can be achieved through the construction of strategic

Assessing the Performance of the European Natural Gas Network for Selected Supply Disruption Scenarios Using Open-Source Information

“…A natural gas network consists of different components, such as pipelines, compressor stations, storage facilities, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals to mention just a few [41]. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) provides some essential information on the transmission network and its infrastructure.…”

“…The three pipeline layers available ("medium and large pipelines" (>24 inch), "large pipelines" (>36 inch) and "all pipelines" (all pipelines recorded on the ENTSOG transparency platform)) were downloaded in form of 1024 high-resolution images (raster grid) for each layer as displayed in Figure 1. A natural gas network consists of different components, such as pipelines, compressor stations, storage facilities, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals to mention just a few [41]. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) provides some essential information on the transmission network and its infrastructure.…”

“…The storage facilities have a dual role in the natural gas system as they can consume natural gas (storage filling) or supply natural gas (storage withdrawal). Depending on the location in the network, a storage facility can support up to the total natural gas flow loss in case of a pipeline failure [41]. For this reason, the effects of the storage facilities are in particular examined.…”

“…The remaining 77% of natural gas is consumed by OC, which use natural gas directly for heating and cooking and/or for industrial activities. The consumption is allocated according to the approach shown in the flow chart in Figure 6 [41]. The allocation process can be split in two steps.…”

“…Complex networks approaches are employed to capture the non-trivial topological features of the European natural gas network (e.g., the natural gas sources and sinks are interconnected and distributed in space). The approaches are proved to address the study objectives, because the infrastructure network can be simplified while important features such as the network topology are retained [41,70]. The geographic information of the European natural gas network is transformed into a connected and undirected weighted graph G(V,E,c) with no loops [3].…”