Natural gas covers more than 20% of Europe’s primary energy demand. A potential disruption could lead to supply shortages with severe consequences for the European economy and society. History shows that such a vast and complex network system is prone to exogenous and endogenous disruptions. A dedicated large-scale dataset of the European natural gas network from publicly available information sources is assembled first. The spatial coverage, completeness and resolution allows analyzing the behavior of this geospatial infrastructure network (including consumption) and its components under likely disruptive events, such as earthquakes, and/or technical failures. Using the developed system state simulation engine, the disruption impact is mapped. The results show that storage facilities cannot in all cases compensate for a pipeline disruption. Moreover, critical pipelines, such as the Transitgas pipeline crossing the Alps and the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline bringing natural gas from Northern Africa, are identified. To analyze the pipelines with high impact on the system performance, a detailed scenario analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation resulting in supply grade mapping is conducted and presented for the case of Italy. Overall, it can be concluded that locations with a dead-end, sole supply, and without storage facility nearby, are remarkably exposed to natural gas supply losses.

Nowadays, a fundamental requirement for a prosperous society is a reliable energy supply. The complex network theory provides an excellent basis to explore the functionality of such systems in response to severe component failures. In this case study, the European natural gas system is analyzed. The actual natural gas consumption is geospatially allocated to the infrastructure network. The network is abstracted and the flow capacity of the network is computed. A scenario analysis is conducted in order to identify the impact of storage facilities on the actual maximum possible flow. Furthermore, the natural gas supply shortage caused by each pipeline in case of a potential pipeline shutdown or failure is estimated. Finally, potential strategic locations of storage facilities for a more reliable natural gas network are identified. Natural gas is transported and distributed by a well-developed system. The design of such a system requires long-term planning and large infrastructure investments. This kind of investments locks the capital in long-term contracts involving often policy decisions and agreements on national or regional levels (e.g. Carvalho et al., 2014, Mišík and Nosko, 2017). The European natural gas system became over time a large infrastructure network with many components, such as compressor stations, storage facilities, gas processing plants, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals, LNG liquefaction and regasification facilities, aiming at assuring high reliability of the supply system. These components should be well planned and coordinated to guarantee a continous and adequate natural gas flow. The natural gas demand cannot be covered by the European countries' available natural gas resources (BP, 2016). Therefore, it is necessary that natural gas is transported by pipelines from the East and South to Europe. Complementary, natural gas is also imported via LNG terminals. The natural gas infrastructure network has to be able to compensate for potential pipeline shutdowns or failures, among others. This can be achieved through the construction of strategic