Network Signatures of Success: Emulating Expert and Crowd Assessment in Science, Art, and Technology

Zakhlebin, Igor; Horvát, Emőke-Ágnes

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-72150-7_36

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…There are a few other advantages afforded by the proposed method. Recent empirical results suggest that the temporality of citations received by a paper is not a reliable predictor of its breakthrough quality, a phenomenon that has at least been observed among Nobel Prize in Physics winning papers [41]. By logical extension, this means that the accumulation of citation counts over a prolonged period of time did not always positively correlate with the perceived impact of a paper according to Nobel Prize award panelists.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 97%

“…More recently [41], explored the ability of six network centrality indices in capturing the process of attributing 'success' to a scientific work by human experts. Their scenarios included emulating expert opinions on the impact of nearly half a million physics papers published by the American Physical Society from year 1893 to 2009, where successful papers were identified as those that have won a Nobel Prize (48 papers in total).…”

Section: Network Properties and Structural Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…to Nobel Prize which require the accumulation of citations over the years (e.g. [8,12,41,45]), our method can be used to immediately measure the potential impact of scientific papers at the time of their publications. Such benefit is appealing to researchers, publishers, and research policy makers.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

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The boundary-spanning mechanisms of Nobel Prize winning papers

Sebastian

Chen

2021

PLoS ONE

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The breakthrough potentials of research papers can be explained by their boundary-spanning qualities. Here, for the first time, we apply the structural variation analysis (SVA) model and its affiliated metrics to investigate the extent to which such qualities characterize a group of Nobel Prize winning papers. We find that these papers share remarkable boundary-spanning traits, marked by exceptional abilities to connect disparate and topically-diverse clusters of research papers. Further, their publications exert structural variations on a scale that significantly alters the betweenness centrality distributions in existing intellectual space. Overall, SVA not only provides a set of leading indicators for describing future Nobel Prize winning papers, but also broadens our understanding of similar prize-winning properties that may have been overlooked among other regular publications.

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Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Network Properties and Structural Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The boundary-spanning mechanisms of Nobel Prize winning papers

Sebastian

Chen

2021

PLoS ONE

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“…As the most prestigious prize in science, the Nobel Prize recognizes some of the most crucial scientific breakthroughs. There have been constant attempts to identify Nobel-Prize-winning discoveries based on citation counts (Garfield & Malin, 1968;Revesz, 2015;Zakhlebin & Horvát, 2017). Despite their occasional success, citations appear to be a noisy signal for the Nobel, for a simple reason: While Nobel-Prize-winning papers all tend to be highly cited, having high citations does not guarantee a Nobel.…”

Section: Quantitative Science Studies 325mentioning

confidence: 99%

See further upon the giants: Quantifying intellectual lineage in science

Liu

Wang

2022

Quantitative Science Studies

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Newton’s centuries-old wisdom of standing on the shoulders of giants raises a crucial yet underexplored question: Out of all the prior works cited by a discovery, which one is its giant? Here, we develop a novel, discipline-independent method to identify the giant for any individual paper, allowing us to systematically examine the role and characteristics of giants in science. We find that across disciplines, about 95% of papers stand on the shoulders of giants, yet the weight of scientific progress rests on relatively few shoulders. Defining a new measure of giant index, we find that, while papers with high citations are more likely to be giants, for papers with the same citations, their giant index sharply predicts a paper’s future impact and prize-winning probabilities. Giants tend to originate from both small and large teams, being either highly disruptive or highly developmental. And papers that did not have a giant but later became a giant tend to be home-run papers that are highly disruptive to science. Given the crucial importance of citation-based measures in science, the developed concept of giants may offer a useful new dimension in assessing scientific impact that goes beyond sheer citation counts. Peer Review https://publons.com/publon/10.1162/qss_a_00186

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“…Such metrics however highly takes into consideration the temporal distance between citations, emphasizing the impact of ancient movies on modern ones. In Zakhlebin and Horvát (2018), the authors investigate how top ranked items obtained from several centrality indexes may differ from expert opinions and popularity in different domains, findings substantial differences between the areas in terms of predictability of success as well as in determining which index is the best predictor.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of key films and personalities in the history of cinema from a Western perspective

Bioglio

Pensa

2018

Appl Netw Sci

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The success of a film is usually measured through its box-office revenue or through the opinion of professional critics; such measures, however, may be influenced by external factors, such as advertisement or trends, and are not able to capture the impact of a film over time. Thanks to the recent availability of data on references among movies, some researchers have started to use citations patterns as an alternative method for ranking movies. In this paper, we propose a novel ranking method for films based on the network of references among movies, calculated by combining four well known centrality indexes: in-degree, closeness, harmonic and PageRank. Our objective is to measure the success of a movie by accounting how much it has influenced other movies produced after its release, from both the artistic and the economic point of view. We apply our method on a subset of the IMDb (Internet Movie Database) citation network consisting of around 47,000 international movies, and we derive a list of films that can be considered milestones in the history of cinema. For each movie we also collect data on its year of release, genres and countries of production, to analyze trends and patterns in the film industry according to such features. We also collect data on 20,000 directors and almost 400,000 performers (actors and actresses), and we use the network of references and our score of movies for evaluating their career, and for ranking them. Since the IMDb dataset we employ is highly biased toward European and North American movies and personalities, our findings can be considered relevant principally for Western culture.

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Network Signatures of Success: Emulating Expert and Crowd Assessment in Science, Art, and Technology

Cited by 4 publications

References 25 publications

The boundary-spanning mechanisms of Nobel Prize winning papers

The boundary-spanning mechanisms of Nobel Prize winning papers

See further upon the giants: Quantifying intellectual lineage in science

Identification of key films and personalities in the history of cinema from a Western perspective

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