PurposeAppropriate target market selection and classification are complex, time-consuming, and strategically important management decisions. The current study proposes and implements a new systematic approach that evaluates and ranks alternative markets’ potential to increase the export volume of Turkey’s fig exports.Design/methodology/approachThe classification approach of potential market alternatives (CAPMA) method, which was developed to evaluate, compare, and classify alternative markets according to their potential, was used in this study. CAPMA, an objective decision-making technique, is based on calculating the classification coefficient and classifying the alternatives into four dimensions, taking this coefficient into consideration. In the current study, 25 alternative markets were analysed on the basis of four evaluation criteria and classified into four dimensions according to their potential to increase export volume.FindingsAccording to the application results, alternative markets with the greatest potential to increase export volume were identified as the United States of America (USA), Netherlands, China, and Spain. The USA has the greatest potential for expansion of export volume. By implementing correct and effective marketing strategies, fig export volume has the potential to reach very high levels.Originality/valueThe study’s results on alternative markets for fig exports were categorized, countries with greater potential to increase export volume were identified, and findings that could contribute to the development of the sector were obtained. The approach proposed in the current research can be used to determine the target market of many other products, especially agricultural products, whose production is concentrated within a specific geography.