New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Janowiak, Maria K.; D’Amato, Anthony W.; Swanston, Christopher W.; Iverson, Louis R.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Peters, Matthew P.; Prasad, Anantha; Fraser, Jacob S.; Brandt, Leslie A.; Butler-Leopold, Patricia; Handler, Stephen D.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Burbank, Diane; Campbell, John; Cogbill, Charles V.; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Emery, Marla R.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Foster, Jane R.; Hushaw, Jennifer; Kenefic, Laura S.; Mahaffey, Amanda; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Reo, Nicholas J.; Schaberg, Paul G.; Simmons, Kathleen R.; Weiskittel, Aaron; Wilmot, Sandy; Hollinger, David Y.; Lane, Erin; Rustad, Lindsey E.; Templer, Pamela H.

doi:10.2737/nrs-gtr-173

Cited by 72 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 344 publications

(611 reference statements)

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“…Initial tree species distribution and abundance and tree harvest and fire regimes were parameterized against extensive forest inventory data. LANDIS PRO has been shown in previous studies to well capture forest distribution, composition, structure and succession trajectories and stand dynamics (Brandt et al., ; Janowiak et al., ; Jin et al. ; Wang et al., , , , ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…LANDIS PRO has been shown in previous studies to well capture Harvesting effects Climate change effects Interative effects Combined effects forest distribution, composition, structure and succession trajectories and stand dynamics (Brandt et al, 2014;Janowiak et al, 2018;Jin et al 2017;Wang et al, 2014bWang et al, , 2015Wang et al, , 2017Wang et al, , 2018. With our coupled modelling approach, we were able to incorporate many details of the initial tree species distribution and composition, tree species demography, competition, disturbances, climate change and their interaction at fine resolutions that would not be possible with other kinds of models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used the LANDIS PRO model because it has been extensively calibrated with forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data (O'Connell et al., ) and applied to multiple regions in the eastern United States (e.g. Brandt et al., ; Janowiak et al., ; Wang, He, Thompson, & Fraser, ; Wang et al., ,b, , ). We addressed the following questions: (a) how will tree species distributions change under climate change over the 21st century with the current regime of tree harvest, urban growth and natural fire; and (b) are there interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on tree species distribution changes?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used the LANDIS PRO model because it has been extensively calibrated with forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data (O'Connell et al, 2015) and applied to multiple regions in the eastern United States (e.g. Brandt et al, 2014;Janowiak et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2014aWang et al, ,b, 2015Wang et al, , 2018…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes

Wang

Thompson

et al. 2019

Journal of Ecology

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Tree harvest and climate change can interact to have synergistic effects on tree species distribution changes. However, few studies have investigated the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on tree species distributions. We assessed the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on the distribution of 29 dominant tree species at 270 m resolution in the southern United States, while accounting for species demography, competition, urban growth and natural fire. We simulated tree species distribution changes to year 2100 using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO), ecosystem process model (LINKAGES) and urban growth model (SLEUTH). The distributions of 20 tree species contracted and nine species expanded within the region under climate change by end of 21st century. Distribution changes for all tree species were very slow and lagged behind the changes in potential distributions that were in equilibrium with new climatic conditions. Tree harvest and climate change interacted to affect species occurrences and colonization but not extinction. Occurrence and colonization were mainly affected by tree harvest and its interaction with climate change while extinctions were mainly affected by tree harvest and climate change. Synthesis and applications. Interactive effects of climate and tree harvest acted in the same direction as climate change effects on species occurrences, thereby accelerating climate change induced contraction or expansion of distributions. The overall interactive effects on species colonization were negative, specifically with positive interactive effects at leading edges of species ranges and negative interactive effects at trailing edges. Tree harvest generally did not interact with climate change to greatly facilitate or ameliorate species extinction. Our modelling results highlight the importance of considering disturbances and species demography (e.g. post‐harvest regeneration dynamics) when predicting changes in tree distributions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes

Wang

Thompson

et al. 2019

Journal of Ecology

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“…Anthropogenic climate change in the northeastern United States (hereafter, the "Northeast") will have significant consequences for human health and the economic, cultural, and ecological resources of the region (Horton et al, 2014;Huang et al, 2017;Janowiak et al, 2018;Limaye et al, 2018;Pederson et al, 2013). Climate impacts are anticipated to be greatest in the densely populated urban New York to Boston coastal corridor (Brown et al, 2010;Horton et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate Climate Field Reconstructions Using Tree Rings for the Northeastern United States

et al. 2020

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High-resolution paleoclimate records are essential for improving our understanding of internal variability and the detection and attribution of forced climate system responses. The densely populated northeastern United States is at risk from increasing temperatures, severe droughts, and extreme precipitation, but the region has limited annual and seasonal-resolution paleoclimate records beyond the instrumental record. Chamaecyparis thyoides, L. (B.S.P.), Atlantic white cedar, a wetland conifer found within 200 km of the Atlantic coastline of the United States, is a promising tree-ring proxy that can fill in these data gaps. Here, we develop and analyze a new network of Atlantic white cedar tree-ring chronologies across the northeastern United States and demonstrate that site selection is important for regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Ring width variability reflects winter through summer temperatures at inland and hydrologically stable sites in the northernmost section of the species' range. Ombrotrophic sites along the coast record hydrological signals and correlate with growing season precipitation. We demonstrate skillful regional climate field reconstructions for the last several centuries and show the increased skill from incorporating our moisture sensitive sites into broad-scale products like the North American Drought Atlas. This comprehensive understanding of the species' climate responses leads to a tree-ring network that provides the long-term multivariate climate context at multidecadal and centennial time scales for the large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes that influence the climate of the region. We use this network to examine the covariance of temperature and drought across the New England area over the past two centuries.

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Mesocarnivore sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic disturbance leads to declines in occurrence and concern for species persistence

Ganoe,

Mayer,

Brown

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Understanding mesocarnivore responses to both natural and anthropogenic disturbance is crucial for understanding species' potential to maintain landscape persistence into the future. We examined the response of five mesocarnivore species (bobcat, coyote, fisher, gray fox, and red fox) to both types of disturbances and climatic conditions. The Northeastern U.S. has experienced multiple large‐scale disturbances, such as a mass defoliation event following larval spongy moth outbreak and high densities of infrastructure that divide the natural landcover into roadless zones where these species inhabit. Using dynamic occupancy models in a Bayesian framework, we aimed to (1) examine variation in species' responses over a 4‐year study by estimating variation in site‐level occupancy, colonization and extirpation of each species in the state of Rhode Island relative to natural disturbance (i.e., defoliation event), anthropogenic disturbance (i.e., parceling of natural landcover bounded by roads, distance to roads), and climate (i.e., seasonal precipitation) and (2) compare current occurrence trends to predicted asymptotic occupancy to identify key variables contributing to distribution instability. Our findings indicated declines in the occurrence of both fox species, and fisher. There was variation in mesocarnivore response to disturbance among the species. We found gray fox and fisher occupancy dynamics to be sensitive to all forms of disturbance and coyote occurrence was positively associated with anthropogenic disturbance. Although bobcat and red fox were predicted to respond positively to future climate scenarios, fisher and gray fox were not, and persistence of fisher and gray fox in a landscape of disturbance relies on large areas with high forest and shrubland cover. With the wide‐spread spongy moth outbreak across much of southern New England, our findings indicate that efforts to conserve forested lands may be crucial in maintaining the persistence of several mesocarnivore species in this region experiencing large‐scale disturbance.

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New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Abstract: Cover PhotoMontane ecosystems, as seen from Mount Jefferson on the White Mountain National Forest. These ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Photo by Toni Lyn Morelli, U.S. Geological Survey.

Cited by 72 publications

References 344 publications

Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes

Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes

Multivariate Climate Field Reconstructions Using Tree Rings for the Northeastern United States

Mesocarnivore sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic disturbance leads to declines in occurrence and concern for species persistence

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