New evidence on learning trajectories in a low-income setting

Abstract

Highlights This paper uses unique longitudinal data to study learning trajectories through primary school in Pakistan.· Children’s test scores increase by 1.19 standard deviations between Grades 3 and 6, commensurate with gains observed in other countries. These gains reflect learning due to schooling rather than aging: children who dropout from school learn significantly less than those who remain. There is significant variation in how much children learn through primary school: those with the lowest test scores experience the largest gains. We introduce the new concept of `fragile learning’, showing that progression is frequently followed by stagnation or reversals in the data.

Covid-19 Learning Loss and Recovery: Panel Data Evidence from India

“…The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on education are expected to be long-lasting, and understanding whether they persist, and how they affect outcomes later in life, are questions of substantial importance. More generally, learning trajectories and persistence in LMICs remain poorly understood (Bau et al, 2021). Yet, the data to generate such evidence, whether through long-run panels such as the NAEP and ECLS in the US or reliable administrative registers as in Scandinavia, do not exist in most LMIC outside of Latin America (Das et al, 2022;Singh, 2020b).…”

The potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on learnings

“…Among the family of EPFs, the Potential Pedagogical Function (PPF) proposed by Kaffenberger and Pritchett (2020, 2021) seeks to capture the dynamics of school progression and learning accumulation and how they can interplay with each other and progress in one dimension (schooling) might not translate into the other (learning) 5 . A series of recent empirical findings on how increases in the years of schooling are not translating into a more extensive learning stock in students motivates this insight (for Indonesia ( Beatty et al, 2021 ), for Rwanda ( Crawfurd, 2021 ), for multiple African countries (Pritchett and Sandefur, 2020 and Kaffenberger and Pritchett, 2020a , Kaffenberger and Pritchett, 2020b and Pakistan ( Bau et al, 2021 )). This would explain why transitory shocks to education have persistent effects in the scholastic careers of those who suffered them, as a growing body of literature identifies (see, among others, Andrabi, Daniels and Das, (2021) , Belot and Webbink, (2010), Ichino and Winter-Ebner, (2004) ; Jaume, and Willén, (2019) ; Marcotte and Hemelt, (2008) ; Meng and Zhao, (2021) and Sacerdote, (2012) ).…”

“…In the cases of the US. and the UK, these complications arise primarily from the lack of a stable internet connection, a computer suitable enough for educational tasks ( Bau et al, 2021 , Francis and Weller, 2021 , Andrew et al, 2020 ), and from more considerable exposure to other types of shocks caused by the pandemic such as the shutdown of care facilities and income earner unemployment (Rodríguez-Planas, 2020). Similar factors have been found to diminish household coping capacity and accessibility to remote education in developing countries ( Hossain, 2021 ).…”

“… Bansak and Starr (2021) , Andrew et al (2020) , and Dietrich, Patzina and Lerche, (2021) find that in the US, the UK, and Germany, parents increased the time they spent with their children in study activities to compensate for the reduction in engagement with the schools. In addition, evidence for the US ( Bacher-Hicks et al, 2021 ) and Denmark ( Jaeger and Hippe, 2020 ) suggests increased use of resources such as the internet and digital library loans to supplement school materials.…”

Learning Loss and Recovery from the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review of Evidence

“…Conversion rate (i) is based on estimates using Young Lives data (Bau, Das, and Yi Chang 2021) while (ii) follows the conversion rates applied by Azevedo et al (2021) and Betthäuser, Bach-Mortensen, and Engzell 2023. The analytical results remain consistent though the magnitudes of coefficients are naturally higher when applying (i) and slightly lower when applying (ii) (Appendix D).…”