New Features of the Brazilian External Sector Since the Great Global Crisis

The Long Expansion and the Profit Squeeze: Output and Profit Cycles in Brazil (1996–2016)

“…The bust, in its turn, was not as significant, lasting only 4 years (in comparison to an average of 6 years) and reducing real commodities prices in 25.1 percent (slightly less than the average decline of 25.8 percent). It did have a contractionary impact on the Brazilian economy through "indirect channels" (Biancarelli, Rosa, and Vergnhanini 2017), but it did not result in a sudden contraction. 19 The first Lula government (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006) took advantage of the policy space provided by the commodities boom to adopt measures that increased aggregate demand, especially an institutional stimulus to household borrowing, 20 an acceleration of the real increases of the minimum wage and an expansion of social transfers (the Bolsa Família program).…”

“…It allowed the Brazilian economy to run current account surpluses from 2003 to 2007 and the government to accumulate billions of dollars in foreign reserves, becoming a net external creditor. According to Biancarelli, Rosa, and Vergnhanini (2017), this "new reality" of the Brazilian balance of payments allowed the economy to go through its longest expansion to date without facing currency shortages, to absorb the foreign shock of 2008 avoiding a currency crisis, and to resume growing quickly despite the deterioration of international liquidity conditions. In what concerns the cyclical dynamic, such attenuation of foreign vulnerability allowed the demand and distribution cycles to run their course without being prematurely interrupted by balance of payments' difficulties.…”

“…The "indirect channels," examined byBiancarelli, Rosa, and Vergnhanini (2017), mainly refer to the impact of the exchange rate devaluation, which was partly a result of the end of the commodities boom, on the balance sheets of firms with debt denominated in foreign currencies and to the impact of the falling asset prices, resulting from the liquidity cycle that accompanied the commodities one, on the collateral of domestic agents and, consequently, on the dynamics of credit.20 Allowing a new kind of credit with automatic repayments from the paycheck, the so-called crédito consignado.…”

Essays on the dynamics of the Brazilian distributive conflict (2000-2020)

“…Ainda que sob diferentes perspectivas, diversos esforços têm convergido em caracterizar parte deste período como um excepcional ciclo de crescimento econômico redistributivo (Barbosa-Filho, 2018;Serrano & Summa, 2018;Loureiro, 2018;. Por um lado, destaca-se como fundamento deste ciclo as condições internacionais favoráveis que permitiram à economia brasileira não apenas uma participação maior no mercado global, mas também a possibilidade de reduzir sua fragilidade relacionada à inserção neste mercado (Biancarelli, Rosa & Vergnhanini, 2017). Por outro, destaca-se o papel cumprido pela demanda doméstica, em especial o consumo das famílias, no sustento da trajetória de crescimento econômico experienciada (Serrano & Summa, 2015;Rossi, Mello & Bastos, 2020).…”

“…There is a vast literature aimed at coming to grips with these changes and their meaning to the financialised character of capitalist accumulation in Brazil (Kaltenbrunner, 2010(Kaltenbrunner, , 2015Dos Santos, 2013;Kaltenbrunner & Painceira, 2015Rezende, 2016;Biancarelli, Rosa & Vergnhanini., 2017;Bruno & Caffe, 2017;Bresser-Pereira, Paula & Bruno, 2020;Lavinas, 2017;Lavinas, Bruno & Araújo, 2017). The present research aims to contribute to these efforts by examining a hitherto overlooked question: how these changes have impacted the income distribution and the distributive conflict.…”