“…With only a bit over half of Americans casting a ballot, voters’ preferences can diverge, sometimes substantially, from the public’s preferences (Leighley & Nagler, 2014). Scholars have explored variations in turnout, exploring why subgroups vote at different rates, including differences based on age (Holbein & Hillygus, 2020), race and ethnicity (Cassel, 2019; Fraga, 2018; Soto-Vásquez, 2020), gender (Dassonneville & Kostelka, 2019), various attitudinal dispositions (Blais & Achen, 2019; Geys, 2006; Prior, 2019), and even the method by which a ballot is cast (Kaplan & Yuan, 2020). Although substantial progress has been made, there is still considerable unexplained variation in our understanding of which citizens will actually turn up at the polls on Election Day.…”