New parties, information uncertainty, and government formation: evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

Government formation in multi-party democracies is notoriously ridden with information uncertainty. Uncertainty is aggravated when new parties enter parliament, which generally suggests a ‘newcomer handicap’ in government formation. However, relegating newcomers to the opposition comes with uncertainty in its own right, which suggests immediate cabinet participation as new leaders seize the opportunity and established parties pursue containment. We explore elite responses to this strategic problem in the postcommunist democracies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) where new parties often gain parliamentary representation. Even in CEE, a newcomer handicap in government formation is apparent, controlling for other detrimental party attributes. However, this applies to small newcomers only. For larger parties the handicap turns into a bonus, an effect only qualified once the newcomer outnumbers its competitors. Either way, newness-induced uncertainty thus intensifies the strategic rationale of government formation. As party systems become more volatile, these findings are relevant beyond CEE.

New Parties, Fractionalization, and the Increasing Duration of Government Formation Processes in the EU Member States

“…The recent emergence of new parties, especially those with a large electoral strength, has demonstrated the potential to make the inter-party competition increasingly unstable and unpredictable (Casal Bértoa 2014). This outcome, if occurring consistently over time, has led to party system de-institutionalization (Emanuele and Chiaramonte 2018), and increased uncertainty both in the voting decision making (Ezrow, Homola, and Tavits 2014;Marinova 2016) and-above all-in the process of government formation (Deschouwer 2008;Grotz and Weber 2012). As a result, the second hypothesis is that:…”

“…Then, we focus our attention on CEE countries. Grotz and Weber (2016) provided an overview of newcomers in the parliaments and governments of twelve post-communist democracies between 1990 and 2012. They argued that uncertainty in government formation is aggravated when new parties enter parliament, suggesting a "newcomer handicap" in the post-communist democracies of CEE.…”

“…Because party newness brings an additional dimension of uncertainty to the bargaining environment (Emanuele and Chiaramonte 2018). More specifically, newness aggravates the government handicap of small newcomers that are “particularly unattractive partners for mainstream parties and may not want to join a government that endangers their very survival after the next election” (Grotz and Weber 2016, 449).…”

Government Formation and Political Discussions in Twitter: An Extended Model for Quantifying Political Distances in Multiparty Democracies

“…Within this context, the factors that can influence the formation of a government or a coalition have to be taken into account. Even more, if we consider that when new parties enter parliament, uncertainty is aggravated (Grotz & Weber, 2016). The processes of government formation have been vastly analyzed by scholars in political science (Ceron, 2016; Mölder, 2017), and it is a central field in comparative political science (Debus, 2009).…”

The spy who loved me? Cross‐partisans in the core executive

“…Verzichelli () shows that since the 1940s, about 80 per cent of the coalition governments in 10 European countries have had CPAs. Moreover, CPAs will likely become more common with time, assuming a continuation of the current trends of increasing frequency of multiparty governments and of coalitions formed by parties without a history of governing together (Deschouwer ; Grotz and Weber ).…”