New procedure for determination of availability and reliability of complex cogeneration systems by improving the approximated Markov method

Manesh, Mohammad Hasan Khoshgoftar; Rad, M. Pouyan; Rosen, Marc A.

doi:10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2018.04.042

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The performance indicators considered in their study included the power-interruption rate and expected capacity deficiency. Manesh et al [7] improved the calculation efficiency of a complex system by simplifying its state-space diagram before applying the Markov methodology to a complex cogeneration system. The improved Markov approach has proven to be efficient at state-probability prediction and availability calculation among other indicators.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Availability Index for Repairable Fuzzy Multi-State Systems

2020

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Fuzzy multi-state systems (FMSSs) comprise FMS components (FMSCs) aims at analyzing non-probabilistic uncertain circumstances defined by fuzzy state-transition rate and performance numbers. The triangular fuzzy number that features intuitive and algebraic operations is widely used for quantifying fuzziness. This study aims to overcome the drawbacks of the existing FMSS availability index that either does not conform to a normal convex set or is inconsistent with the crisp-circumstance multi-state system (MSS) availability beyond summation over state probabilities that do no equal unity. The proposed method first evaluates the instantaneous state probability (ISP) of FMSCs by establishing the FMSCs Markov model. Subsequently, the FMSSs ISP is evaluated by integrating the FMSCs ISP using the fuzzy universal generating function based on the system-structure function. A "constrained nonlinear parameter programming model" has been developed to evaluate the improved FMSSs availability. The corresponding availability index features the normal convex set whilst fulfilling the MSS theory, which requires state probabilities to equal unity during availability evaluation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been verified using an illustrated community-based smart-grid system comprising three FMSCs-solar-and wind-energy systems as well as diesel-generator equipment. Moreover, the results of an independent sensitive analysis provide further insights into the improved FMSSs availability with regard to the time and circumstance fuzziness.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Availability Index for Repairable Fuzzy Multi-State Systems

2020

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“…Sabouhi et al [18] used this technique to model the reliability and availability of a combined cycle power plant alongside with RBD analysis. Manesh et al [19] used the Markov method for the determination of availability and reliability of complex cogeneration systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maintenance Strategy Optimization of a Coal-Fired Power Plant Cooling Tower through Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

et al. 2019

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Determining the ideal size of maintenance staff is a daunting task, especially in the operation of large and complex mechanical systems such as thermal power plants. On the one hand, a significant investment in maintenance is necessary to maintain the availability of the system. On the other hand, it can significantly affect the profit of the plant. Several mathematical modeling techniques have been used in many different ways to predict and improve the availability and reliability of such systems. This work uses a modeling tool called generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN) in a new way, aiming to determine the effect that the number of maintenance teams has on the availability and performance of a coal-fired power plant cooling tower. The results obtained through the model are confronted with a thermodynamic analysis of the cooling tower that shows the influence of this system’s performance on the efficiency of the power plant. Thus, it is possible to determine the optimal size of the repair team in order to maximize the plant’s performance with the least possible investment in maintenance personnel.

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“…[13] used Markov chain-based method to analyse the reliability and availability of site utility (or cogeneration) systems. The study [13] is to reduce the number of state spaces and complexity of the utility system (i.e., number of components) while achieving accuracy in the probability calculation needed in the reliability analysis. The method has less computational time and thus can be extended to less complex systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design, optimisation and reliability allocation for energy systems based on equipment function and operating capacity

Andiappan

Benjamin

Tan

et al. 2019

Heliyon

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Designers of energy systems often face challenges in balancing the trade-off between cost and reliability. In literature, several papers have presented mathematical models for optimizing the reliability and cost of energy systems. However, the previous models only addressed reliability implicitly, i.e., based on availability and maintenance planning. Others focused on allocation of reliability based on individual equipment requirements via non-linear models that require high computational effort. This work proposes a novel mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model that combines the use of both input-output (I-O) modelling and linearized parallel system reliability expressions. The proposed MILP model can optimize the design and reliability of energy systems based on equipment function and operating capacity. The model allocates equipment with sufficient reliability to meet system functional requirements and determines the required capacity. A simple pedagogical example is presented in this work to illustrate the features of proposed MILP model. The MILP model is then applied to a polygeneration case study consisting of two scenarios. In the first scenario, the polygeneration system was optimized based on specified reliability requirements. The technologies chosen for Scenario 1 were the CHP module, reverse osmosis unit and vapour compression chiller. The total annualized cost (TAC) for Scenario 1 was 53.3 US$ million/year. In the second scenario, the minimum reliability level for heat production was increased. The corresponding results indicated that an additional auxiliary boiler must be operated to meet the new requirements. The resulting TAC for the Scenario 2 was 5.3% higher than in the first scenario.

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New procedure for determination of availability and reliability of complex cogeneration systems by improving the approximated Markov method

Cited by 16 publications

References 18 publications

Improved Availability Index for Repairable Fuzzy Multi-State Systems

Improved Availability Index for Repairable Fuzzy Multi-State Systems

Maintenance Strategy Optimization of a Coal-Fired Power Plant Cooling Tower through Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

Design, optimisation and reliability allocation for energy systems based on equipment function and operating capacity

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