New Zealand eliminates COVID-19

Cousins, Sophie

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31097-7

Cited by 164 publications

(158 citation statements)

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“…In Table 3, columns (4) and (5) show lockdowns were no longer statistically significant at conventional levels (p=0.240 and p=0.175, respectively). However, the coefficient's sign was still negative and about the same magnitude as the coefficient in Table 3, columns (7) and (8). The joint significance test for the proportion of the month under lockdown and lagged per capita COVID-19 deaths and incidence was significant (F=3.84, p<0.05; F=2.81, p=0.064, respectively).…”

Section: Conurbations and Standalone Municipalitiesmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…Regressions results for the effect of one month localized lockdown on total VAT collection, estimated with two-way fixed effects at the municipality level, January-May 2020 7and (8) consider the baseline sample and controls for contemporaneous COVID-19 deaths and incidence per 100,000 population, respectively, at the municipality level.…”

Section: Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effect of lockdown is roughly the same as in column 1 (β=-0.125; 95% CI:-0.265,0.013; p<0.10). Controlling for COVID-19 monthly incidence per 100,000 population Table 2, Column (8) shows that one month of lockdown results in a thirteen percent decrease in VAT collection (β=-0.135; 95% CI:-0.237,-0.033; p=0.01). Results are robust to using one-month lagged COVID-19 deaths and cases.…”

Section: Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These interventions range from individual-level recommendations, such as the use of facemasks or frequent hand-washing, to large-scale regulations and policies, such as large-scale quarantines or lockdowns and non-essential business closures [4,5]. Several countries have achieved some control over the COVID-19 based on a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and high levels of testing and isolation of infected people [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. However, there is a substantial risk of a resurgence of the epidemic [13][14][15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

Asahi

Undurraga

Valdés

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background. Governments worldwide have implemented large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing or school closures, to prevent and control the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic. These strategies, implemented with varying stringency, have imposed substantial social and economic costs to society. As some countries begin to reopen and ease mobility restrictions, lockdowns in smaller geographic areas are increasingly being considered as an attractive policy intervention to mitigate societal costs while controlling epidemic growth. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support these decisions. Methods. Drawing from a rich dataset of localized lockdowns in Chile, we used econometric methods to measure the reduction in local economic activity from lockdowns when applied to smaller or larger geographical areas. We measured economic activity by tax collection at the municipality-level. Findings. Results show lockdowns were associated with a 10-15% drop in local economic activity, a two-fold reduction compared to municipalities not under lockdown. A three-to-four-month lockdown had a similar effect on economic activity than the year of the 2009 great recession. We found that costs are proportional to the population under lockdown, without differences when lockdowns were measured at the municipality or city-wide levels. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that localized lockdowns have a large effect on local economic activity, but these effects are proportional to the population under lockdown. Our results suggest that epidemiological criteria should guide decisions about the optimal size of lockdown areas; the proportional effects of lockdowns on the economy seem to be unchanged by scale.

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Section: Conurbations and Standalone Municipalitiesmentioning

confidence: 73%

Section: Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

Asahi

Undurraga

Valdés

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This led to rapid growth of new infections in many countries. New Zealand experienced an outbreak of COVID-19 between March and May 2020, but successfully controlled the epidemic and ultimately eliminated community transmission of the virus for over 100 days (Baker, Wilson, & Anglemyer, 2020;Cousins, 2020). During this time, the country's border remained closed everyone except citizens and residents, with a mandatory 14-day period of government-managed quarantine for all international arrivals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border arrivals

Steyn

Plank

James

et al. 2020

Preprint

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In an attempt to maintain elimination of COVID-19, the New Zealand government has closed the border to everyone except citizens and residents. All arrivals are required to spend 14 days in government-managed isolation/quarantine and to be tested for COVID-19 on day 3 and on day 12 of their stay. We model the testing, isolation and potential transmission of COVID-19 within managed isolation facilities to estimate the risk of undetected cases and the risk of infectious cases being released into the community. We use a stochastic individual-based that includes a time-dependent probability of a false negative test result, complete isolation of confirmed and probable cases, and secondary transmission of COVID-19 between close contacts. We show that the combination of 14-day quarantine with day 3 and day 12 testing reduces risk of releasing an infectious case to around 0.1% per infected arrival. Shorter quarantine periods, or reliance on testing only with no quarantine, substantially increase this risk. It is important to avoid contacts between individuals staying in quarantine to minimise the risk of secondary transmission. We calculate the ratio of cases detected on day 3 to cases detected on day 12 in the model and show that this may be a useful indicator of the likelihood of secondary transmission occurring within quarantine. We do not explicitly model transmission of COVID-19 from individuals in quarantine to staff, but this is likely to present a significant risk. This needs to be minimised by strict infection control, use of personal protective equipment by staff at all times, and avoiding close contact between staff and hotel guests.

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Empirical assessment of government policies and flattening of the COVID 19 curve

2020

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The objective of the study is 2-fold. First, it estimates the 2019 new coronavirus disease (COVID19) flattening curve using Panel Random Coefficient Model. This allows each country to have its trajectory while allowing for random error effects to transfer across countries. Second, it calculates the expected number of days to reach the flattening point of COVID19 curve and estimate the empirical effectiveness of government policies around the world using Poisson regression. This study avails global COVID19 incidence data for 190 countries between January 22, 2020 and May 11, 2020. In the absence of a vaccine or of more appropriate treatment options, non-pharmaceutical approaches must be used to control the spread of the COVID19. This study proposed that the contact tracing, stay at home restrictions and international movement restrictions are most effective in controlling the spread and flattening the COIVD19 curve. At the same time, habits that hurt the immune system like smoking have a negative effect on the flattening of the curve. The government should integrate these policies in their lockdown plan to make it smart lockdown.

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New Zealand eliminates COVID-19

Abstract: New Zealand eliminates COVID-19An aggressive approach has enabled New Zealand to end community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Sophie Cousins reports.

Cited by 164 publications

References 0 publications

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border arrivals

Empirical assessment of government policies and flattening of the COVID 19 curve

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