Niche based distribution modelling of an invasive alien plant: effects of population status, propagule pressure and invasion history

Abstract

Forecasting the spatial spread of invasive species is important to inform management planning. Niche-based species distribution models offer a welldeveloped framework for assessing the potential range of species. However, these models assume equilibrium between the species' distribution and its ecological requirements. During range expansion, invasive species are not in such equilibrium due to both dispersal limitation and frequent casual occurrence in sites unsuitable to persistent populations. In this article we use the example of the invasive annual plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Austria to evaluate if model accuracy can be enhanced in such nonequilibrium situations by taking account of propagule pressure and by restricting model calibration to naturalized populations. Moreover, we test if model accuracy increases during invasion history using distribution data from 1984 to 2005. The results suggest that models calibrated with naturalized populations are much more accurate than those based on the total set of records. Proxies of propagule pressure slightly but significantly improve goodness of fit, accuracy, and Type I and II error rates of models calibrated with all available records but have less consistent effects on models of naturalized populations. Model accuracy did not increase during the recent invasion history, probably because the species is still far from an equilibrium distribution. We conclude that even a coarse assessment of population status with records of invasive species delivers important information for predictive modelling and that proxies of propagule pressure should be included into such models at least during early to intermediate stages of the invasion history.

Range Expansion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe Is Promoted by Climate Change

“…In some cases the realized niches of a species may vary between native and introduced ranges [39]. This may complicate the cross-continental transfer of models [40]. But altogether in the case of A. artemisiifolia the modelling results using the native range approach represent the observed distribution pattern of A. artemisiifolia in Europe well.…”

Prediction of Potential Distributions of Two Invasive Alien Plants, Paspalum distichum and Ambrosia artemisiifolia, Using Species Distribution Model in Korean Peninsula

“…따라서 최근 외래침입식물의 잠 재적인 확산과 분포를 예측하기 위하여 종 분포 모델을 적용 한 다양한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다 (Wang and Wang 2006, Dullinger et al 2009, Smolik et al 2010, Tererai and Wood 2014. 종 분포 모델 (species distribution model, SDM)은 종과 환경과의 관계를 파악하기 위한 경 험적 모델로서 생물종의 생태적 지위를 파악하여 새로운 지 역에서 이들의 분포를 파악할 수 있는 기법이다 Thuiller 2005, Elith andLeathwick 2009).…”

“…한 편 세계적으로 문제가 되고 있는 대표적인 침입외래종인 돼 지풀 (Ambrosia artemisiifolia)에 대한 종 분포 모델을 적 용한 다양한 연구가 보고되고 있다. 오스트리아에서 돼지 풀의 분포를 GLM, GAM, GBMs (generalized boosted regression models)을 이용하여 예측한 결과에서 도입 초기 에 유출된 번식체의 수인 번식체 압력이 이 종의 확산에 중요 한 요인으로 나타났다 (Dullinger et al 2009). 또한 오스트 리아에서 돼지풀의 분포를 예측하는데 있어서, 종 분포 모델 과 확산 모델을 결합한 통합 모델이 분포지를 보다 정확히 예 측할 수 있었다 (Smolik et al 2010).…”

Current distribution and spreading of Euphorbia davidii (E. dentata agg.) in Europe

“…However, there is a lack of records for many species and regions. The more we know concerning the spreading history of alien taxa, the better we can predict their expected impact, and the potential impact and spread of related taxa [8,10].…”