Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the cold-tolerant subtropical montanePodocarpus parlatorei

Abstract

Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. Modelling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation. By the mid-late twenty-first century areas of high suitability for P. parlatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, in lowland locations where rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of the unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.

Soil moisture determines the recovery time of ecosystems from drought

“…The resilience of natural pine in southeastern Spain is significantly negatively correlated with altitude (Rubio‐Cuadrado et al, 2018), and rising elevations reduce resilience for mountain ecosystems in the northeastern Caribbean (Yu & Gao, 2020). Due to narrow niches and limited species adaptation, ecosystems at higher altitudes are vulnerable to climate change (Fourcade et al, 2021; Quiroga et al, 2018). Soil composition affects recovery time, specifically, recovery time is extended with the increasing soil sand or decreasing soil clay (Figure 3k,m).…”

Chloroplast population genetics reveals low levels of genetic variation and conformation to the central–marginal hypothesis in Taxus wallichiana var. mairei, an endangered conifer endemic to China

“…Global warming may alter environments suitable for many species of conifer, forcing them to migrate north (Ettinger & HilleRisLambers, 2017;Quiroga, Premoli, & Kitzberger, 2018;Wang, Wang, Xia, & Su, 2016). Climate is known as the most important factor shaping the natural distribution of T. wallichiana var.…”

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

“…Empirical evidence also shows that climatic conditions can impede the effective establishment of tree communities (Rehm & Feeley, 2013; Song et al ., 2016 b ; Joshi et al ., 2020) and likely other components of tropical montane biota. In fact, species' ability to persist or migrate is influenced by their interactions with other ecosystem components, both biotic and abiotic (Jankowski et al ., 2010; Ramirez‐Villegas et al ., 2014; Quiroga, Premoli & Kitzberger, 2018; Joshi et al ., 2020), but few studies have looked at ecological networks in TMFs (Benning et al ., 2002; Jankowski et al ., 2010; Hillyer & Silman, 2010; Ornelas, Licona‐Vera & Ortiz‐Rodriguez, 2018; Tito et al ., 2021). Improving our understanding of these interactions would help improve the accuracy of forecasts both in terms of distributional responses and potential future assemblages.…”