Nigerian COVID-19 Incidence Modeling and Forecasting with Univariate Time Series Model

Abstract

The occurrence of COVID-19 has given rise to dreadful medical difficulties due to its hyper-endemic effects on the human population. This made it fundamental to model and forecast COVID-19 pervasiveness and mortality to control the spread viably.The COVID-19 data used was from February, 28, 2020 to March 1, 2021. ARIMA(1,2,0) was selected for modeling COVID-19 confirmed and ARIMA (1,1,0) for death cases. The model was shown to be adequate for modeling and forecasting Nigerian COVID-19 data based on the ARIMA model building results. The forecasted values from the two models indicated Nigerian COVID-19 cumulative confirmed and death case continues to rise and maybe in-between 189,019-327,426 and interval 406-3043, respectively in the next 3 months (May 30, 2021). The ARIMA models forecast indicated an alarming rise in Nigerian COVID-19 confirmed and death cases on a daily basis.The findings indicated that effective treatment strategies must be put in place, the health sector should be monitored and properly funded. All the protocols and restrictions put in place by the NCDC, Nigeria should be clung to diminish the spread of the pandemic and possible mortality before immunizations that can forestall the infection is developed.

Hybrid Neural Network Prediction for Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Cases in Nigeria

“…In the same vein, Anne [4] used a time series model to predict the short-term transmission of the exponentially growing COVID-19 time series, with the aid of simulation. Taiwo et al [5] used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to model and forecast Nigerian confirmed and death cases as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This model predicts the number of cumulative instances over time and is validated using Akaike information criterion (AIC) statistics.…”

Knowledge, Attitude, and Perception of Health and Non-Healthcare Workers Towards COVID-19 Vaccination: Machine Learning Approach

“…The human coronavirus was first discovered in 1965, responsible for a significant proportion of upper respiratory tract infections in humans. The study also showed that no fewer than five mutations of new human coronaviruses have been discovered, which has resulted in illness and mortality [1,2]. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak started in southern China in 2002-2003 as a form of coronavirus and spread worldwide.…”