The dramatic increase of bioreactive nitrogen entering Earth's ecosystems continues to attract growing attention. Increasingly large quantities of inorganic nitrogen are flushed from land to water, accelerating freshwater and marine eutrophication. Multiple, interacting, and potentially countervailing drivers control the future hydrologic export of inorganic nitrogen. In this paper, we attempt to resolve these land-water interactions across boreal/hemiboreal Sweden in the face of a changing climate with help of a versatile modeling framework to maximize the information value of existing measurement time series. We combined 6962 spatially distributed water chemistry observations spread over 31 years with daily streamflow and air temperature records. An ensemble of climate model projections, hydrological simulations and several parameter parsimonious regression models was employed to project future riverine inorganic nitrogen dynamics across Sweden. The median predicted increase in total inorganic nitrogen export from Sweden (2061Sweden ( -2090 due to climate change was 14% (interquartile range 0-29%), based on the ensemble of 7500 different predictions for each study site. The overall export as well as the seasonal pattern of inorganic nitrogen loads in a future climate are mostly influenced by longer growing seasons and more winter flow, which offset the expected decline in spring flood. The predicted increase in inorganic nitrogen loading due to climate change means that the political efforts for reducing anthropogenic nitrogen inputs need to be increased if ambitions for reducing the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea are to be achieved. 43
Introduction 44Multiple ongoing global changes have reshaped the pools and fluxes of biogeochemical 45 elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Of these, dramatic increases in the loading of 46 bioreactive nitrogen (N) to terrestrial ecosystems during the 20th century have drawn particular 47 attention (Galloway et al., 2008) and are linked to multiple environmental problems, ranging 48 from declines in species diversity to stratospheric ozone loss (Gruber & Galloway, 2008). Large 49 quantities of N are also flushed from land to water (Seitzinger et al., 2005) which contribute to 50 freshwater and marine eutrophication (Conley et al., 2009). These mounting water quality 51 concerns are linked to hydrological patterns that are themselves sensitive to climate drivers 52 (IPCC, 2014). Concurrent to these global increases in N inputs, warming temperatures, longer 53 growing seasons, and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations may lead to increased plant growth 54 (Richardson et al., 2010), greater N uptake and accumulation in terrestrial ecosystems (Luo et al., 55 2004) and, in some cases, reduced N losses to surface waters (Lucas et al., 2016). Thus, future 56 change in hydrologic export of bioreactive N from catchments will reflect multiple, interacting, 57 and sometimes countervailing drivers. Resolving these land-water interactions and predicting 58 future d...