“No Bourgeoisie, No Democracy”? The Political Attitudes of the Kenyan Middle Class

Abstract

Barrington Moore's famous line 'no bourgeoisie, no democracy' is one of the most quoted claims in political science. But has the rise of the African middle class promoted democratic consolidation? This paper uses the case of Kenya to investigate the attitudes and behaviours of the middle class. Analysis of Afrobarometer survey data reveals that the middle class is more likely to hold prodemocratic attitudes. This suggests that Moore's argument deserves to be taken seriously, at least in some African countries, and that contemporary demographic changes will improve the prospects for democratic consolidation. However, qualitative evidence from the Kenyan 2013 general election raises important questions about the resilience of these attitudes. The middle class may be more inclined to democratic attitudes than their less well-off counterparts, but class continues to intersect with ethnicity, and its political salience is likely to wax and wane as a result.

The Political Economy of Africa's Emergent Middle Class: Retrospect and Prospects

“…Cheeseman () begins to probe this issue in more detail in this issue. By illustrating that middle class Kenyans began to demonstrate strong affinities to co‐ethnic presidential candidates as the 2013 elections drew closer, he emphasizes that the relevance of a middle class consciousness can wax and wane depending on the broader context in which they are operating.…”

“…If one is concerned with the consumption patterns of the middle class, an absolute income or expenditure measure may be most appropriate, as chosen by Tschirley et al (2015). If one is most interested in the political activism and democratic values of the middle class, as chosen by Cheeseman (2015), Mattes (2015) and Resnick (2015), combining income or asset metrics with those incorporating educational attainment and employment status appears more fitting.…”

Ghana: The Ebbing Power of Incumbency

“…As Bratton et al have argued, based on Afrobarometer survey data from 18 countries, "would-be voters in Africa consider policy performance, especially the government's perceived handling of unemployment, inflation, and income distribution". 20 Further survey research has found that the kind of voters most likely to vote on the basis of performance and the public good are those who live in urban areas, 21 are more educated, 22 and come from families that have experienced inter-ethnic marriage. 23 If this is correct, the proportion of the electorate voting on the basis of the government's record will grow in the future as levels of urbanization and education on the continent increase.…”

Nation, Ethnicity, Milieus, and Multiple “We’s”. The Case of Kenya

“…SeeMoore (1967); Lijphart (1969) refers in in seminal work on sub-cultures; for Africa see:Cheeseman (2015);Van de Walle (2003).…”