Nomogram Based on Monocyte-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict Survival of Unresectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Who Receive First-Line PD-1/PD-L1 Inhibitors Combined with Chemotherapy

Abstract

Background. Chemoimmunotherapy has become the first-line treatment for unresectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Still, reliable biomarkers to identify patients who could benefit from this combined therapy remain uncertain. This study focused on elucidating the predictive significance of the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) and establishing the prognostic nomogram for unresectable ESCC treated with chemoimmunotherapy. Methods. Data of clinical features, peripheral blood parameters, and treatment records were collected in unresectable ESCC patients who received PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors plus chemotherapy as the first-line treatment from September 2017 to August 2021. The nomogram based on MLR and clinical parameters for predicting the overall survival (OS) was developed and validated. Results. Out of 81 patients enrolled, patients with a lower MLR had significantly longer progression-free survival (PFS) and OS than patients with a higher pretreatment MLR (p = 0.0067; p = 0.00069). The OS nomogram integrating MLR, performance status (PS) score, and body mass index (BMI) achieved a C-index of 0.770 (95%CI 0.645–0.896). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of the nomogram predicting 12-, 18-, and 24-month OS rates were 0.855, 0.792, and 0.744, respectively, which were higher than the clinical TNM staging system or the MLR. Stratified by the nomogram-generated scores, three risk groups (low, moderate, and high) in survival curves manifested a distinct difference (p < 0.0001). Conclusion. MLR emerged as an independent predictive factor for PFS and OS in treatment-naive unresectable ESCC patients treated with chemoimmunotherapy. The constructed nomogram of MLR and clinical parameters was a reliable model for prognostic estimation.