Nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with stages I–III colon cancer

Zheng, Peilin; Chen, Lai; Ye, Weimin; Guo, Jianping; Xiao, Shihan; Chen, Zhikang

doi:10.1080/00365521.2020.1720280

Cited by 21 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Besides, the difference between MCC/SRCC, being considered highly malignant, and adenocarcinomas was non-significant. In addition, age, marital status, and pathological grade were also related to the survival of small bowel cancer, which was consistent with colorectal cancer (19)(20)(21)(22).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Specific survival nomograms based on SEER database for small intestine adenocarcinoma

Wang¹,

Li²,

Li³

et al. 2021

Ann Palliat Med

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Background: Small intestine cancers, as an extremely rare tumor type, account only for 3% of all gastrointestinal tumors. Small intestine adenocarcinoma (SIA), representing approximately one-third of all small bowel cancers, has received relatively little attention, both in research efforts and clinical cognizance.Owing to anatomical proximity and rarity, small bowel adenocarcinomas are frequently grouped with colorectal adenocarcinomas. Therefore, a large SIA patient cohort is needed to develop and validate new nomogram prognostic models specific to SIA patients. Methods: Patients diagnosed with SIA between 2004 and 2016 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results (SEER) database. All patients were randomly assigned to the training cohort and the validation cohort (2:1). The basic clinical information, detailed pathological staging, and treatment information of the patients were included in the analysis. Nomograms were shaped following the evaluations of the Cox regression model and verified using the decision curve analysis (DCA), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance index (C-index), and calibration curves. Results:The entire group comprised 6,947 patients with small intestine adenocarcinoma. According to the results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis, ten variables, including marital status, age, pathological grade, tumor location, T (tumor), N (nodes), M (metastasis) stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and regional nodes examined (RNE), were independent predictors of both of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). All significant variables were used to create the nomograms for OS and CSS. Various methods verified the reliability of the nomograms. The C-indexes of the OS and CSS nomogram were 0.756 (95% CI, 0.748-0.764) and 0.771 (95% CI, 0.761-0.781) in the training cohort and 0.748 (95% CI, 0.736-0.760) and 0.767 (95% CI, 0.752-0.781) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual survival. DCA indicated a clear net benefit of these new forecasting models.Conclusions: This study built and verified nomograms to predict OS and CSS for rare SIA, which appear to be excellent tools to augment the clinically available evidence to facilitate the discussion between SIA patients and clinicians regarding therapeutic choice.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Specific survival nomograms based on SEER database for small intestine adenocarcinoma

Wang¹,

Li²,

Li³

et al. 2021

Ann Palliat Med

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“…The current nomogram had certain advantages and key features compared with previous nomograms for resectable colon cancer. First, the present population was not age-restricted, compared with some studies that only included elderly patients 14 or younger patients. 11 In addition, some previous studies only performed internal validation, 15 while we validated the nomogram using both internal and external datasets, given that validation using a dataset from other countries is generally considered as the most stringent form of external validation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and external validation of a nomogram predicting overall survival after curative resection of colon cancer

et al. 2021

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Objective To develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with resectable colon cancer. Methods Data for 50,996 patients diagnosed with non-metastatic colon cancer were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were assigned randomly to the training set (n = 34,168) or validation set (n = 16,828). Independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and used to construct the nomogram. Harrell’s C-index and calibration plots were calculated using the SEER validation set. Additional external validation was performed using a Chinese dataset (n = 342). Results Harrell’s C-index of the nomogram for OS in the SEER validation set was 0.71, which was superior to that using the 7th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging (0.59). Calibration plots showed consistency between actual observations and predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival. Harrell’s C-index (0.72) and calibration plot showed excellent predictive accuracy in the external validation set. Conclusions We developed a nomogram to predict OS after curative resection for colon cancer. Validation using the SEER and external datasets revealed good discrimination and calibration. This nomogram may help predict individual survival in patients with colon cancer.

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“…In previous studies, some prognostic factors for CC patients were reported, including stage and metastatic status, which revealed the association between clinicopathologic features and the prognosis of CC patients (11)(12)(13)(14). Nevertheless, there is no large cohort-based study in exploring prognostic factors of CCLM patients.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Prognostic Nomogram of Colon Cancer With Liver Metastasis: A Study of the US SEER Database and a Chinese Cohort

Liu

Huang

et al. 2021

Front. Oncol.

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BackgroundAmong colon cancer patients, liver metastasis is a commonly deadly phenomenon, but there are few prognostic models for these patients.MethodsThe clinicopathologic data of colon cancer with liver metastasis (CCLM) patients were downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. All patients were randomly divided into training and internal validation sets based on the ratio of 7:3. A prognostic nomogram was established with Cox analysis in the training set, which was validated by two independent validation sets.ResultsA total of 5,700 CCLM patients were included. Age, race, tumor size, tumor site, histological type, grade, AJCC N status, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), lung metastasis, bone metastasis, surgery, and chemotherapy were independently associated with the overall survival (OS) of CCLM in the training set, which were used to establish a nomogram. The AUCs of 1-, 2- and 3-year were higher than or equal to 0.700 in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets, indicating the favorable effects of our nomogram. Besides, whether in overall or subgroup analysis, the risk score calculated by this nomogram can divide CCLM patients into high-, middle- and low-risk groups, which suggested that the nomogram can significantly determine patients with different prognosis and is suitable for different patients.ConclusionHigher age, the race of black, larger tumor size, higher grade, histological type of mucinous adenocarcinoma and signet ring cell carcinoma, higher N stage, RCC, lung metastasis, bone metastasis, without surgery, without chemotherapy, and elevated CEA were independently associated with poor prognosis of CCLM patients. A nomogram incorporating the above variables could accurately predict the prognosis of CCLM.

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Nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with stages I–III colon cancer

Cited by 21 publications

References 26 publications

Specific survival nomograms based on SEER database for small intestine adenocarcinoma

Specific survival nomograms based on SEER database for small intestine adenocarcinoma

Development and external validation of a nomogram predicting overall survival after curative resection of colon cancer

A Prognostic Nomogram of Colon Cancer With Liver Metastasis: A Study of the US SEER Database and a Chinese Cohort

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