Non-inclusive ceasefires do not bring peace: findings from Myanmar

Tønnesson, Stein; Oo, Min Zaw; Aung, Ne Lynn

doi:10.1080/09592318.2021.1991141

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Sai Wansai (2018) argued for a "conditional clause" approach that would create agreements and mutual compromise by binding parties to a set of conditions, that if breached, would free the other side from its obligations. Tønnesson, Min Zaw Oo, and Ne Lynn Aung (2021) demonstrated in detail how the lack of inclusivity in the NCA made peace unsustainable. With the increasing political dominance of EAOs of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee, led by the UWSA (which had closer ties to China), Chinese support for the peace process under the NLD government became crucial (ICG 2017).…”

Section: Relations and Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peace Studies in Myanmar: Interweaving Regional Geopolitics and Local Dynamics

Ong¹

2023

AJP

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This article surveys the trajectory of peace and conflict studies in Myanmar-from its early focus on civil war and insurgency, to state institutions and ethnic armed actors, and later broadening into relational and networked approaches covering formal peace processes, regional geopolitics, conflict economies, and everyday peacebuilding. It suggests that the widening of peace and conflict studies was brought about by the opening of the country from the early 2010s, which both granted scholars and researchers more access to the country and introduced new foreign specialists, discourses, and developmental actors into the political sphere. The peace agenda and directions of peace studies have been upended by the military coup of 2021; how reconciliation, justice, and federal democratic reform will look like in the future remains to be seen.

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Section: Relations and Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peace Studies in Myanmar: Interweaving Regional Geopolitics and Local Dynamics

Ong¹

2023

AJP

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“…The KIO hoped to negotiate a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA), along with all other EAOs, which would support a political dialogue. However, EAOs were divided over approaches to ceasefires; major groups such as the Karen National Union and the Shan State Army-South refused to enter a ceasefire without a commitment to future political dialogue ( Zaw Oo and Win Min 2007 ;Tønnesson, Zaw Oo, and Aung 2021 ). With insurgencies continuing in other border regions, a genuine national political dialogue remained elusive.…”

Section: Myanmar's Ceasefires and The Kachin Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Tatmadaw, the country's military, has a long history of negotiating ceasefires but historically, these agreements never translated into substantial political reform. Myanmar's transition in 2011 from a military to a civilian-led regime was "driven by a government hoping to terminate Myanmar's armed conflicts altogether" ( Tønnesson, Zaw Oo, and Aung 2021 ). In this context, local and international peacebuilding organizations and donors supported civilian ceasefire monitoring with a civilian protection component to strengthen the nascent ceasefires between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and the Union of Myanmar Government.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ceasefires and Civilian Protection Monitoring in Myanmar

Krause

Kamler

2022

Global Studies Quarterly

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Civilian ceasefire and civilian protection monitoring are often seen as innovative peacekeeping and protection mechanisms in conflict zones difficult to access for international actors. However, the literature on civilian monitoring and its impact is sparse. In many conflicts, civilians organize to protect themselves. Research into civilian agency and protection has shown that civilian capacity to self-protect and conflict conditions determine whether protective civilian agency can be effective. We analyze whether civilian protection monitoring can positively impact the protection of civilians, focusing on Myanmar, where donors have funded civilian ceasefire monitoring efforts that are inclusive of a strong civilian protection component. We argue that despite failed ceasefires in Myanmar, the nurturing of civilian monitoring networks, that is, supporting civilian capacity, had a positive—albeit limited—impact on civilian protection. Monitors adapted knowledge from international ceasefire monitoring trainings to their reality on the ground and implemented civilian protection monitoring. Yet, conflict conditions seriously limited protection monitoring and posed grave security challenges to monitors and communities. We conclude that in conflict situations where armed actors show little sensitivity to civilian preferences and commitment to respecting human rights, the need for civilian protection is high while the protective potential of civilian monitoring is limited as long as armed groups’ incentives to better protect civilians remain weak.

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Post-coup Myanmar: Military, Divisions, and Atrocities

Yamahata¹,

Takeda²

2023

Myanmar’s Changing Political Landscape

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Non-inclusive ceasefires do not bring peace: findings from Myanmar

Cited by 5 publications

References 27 publications

Peace Studies in Myanmar: Interweaving Regional Geopolitics and Local Dynamics

Peace Studies in Myanmar: Interweaving Regional Geopolitics and Local Dynamics

Ceasefires and Civilian Protection Monitoring in Myanmar

Post-coup Myanmar: Military, Divisions, and Atrocities

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