Non-linear Dynamic Shifts in Distress After Wildfires: Further Tests of the Self-Regulation Shift Theory

Abstract

Worldwide exposure to explosive wildfires has become increasingly common. The psychological impact of these fires is substantial, demanding a deeper understanding of post-wildfire adaptation. This paper consists of two studies aiming to test self-regulation shift theory and its predicted non-linear shifts in distress using cusp catastrophe analyses. Study 1 tested a cusp catastrophe model on distress after the Waldo Canyon wildfire, Colorado (June, 2012). Results of study 1 showed that coping self-efficacy early after the wildfire was a significant bifurcation factor affecting when a shift in distress levels occurred from a lower state to an upper state. Perceived loss was a significant asymmetry controlling factor affecting the relative strength of each state. These findings indicate that a non-linear shift is more likely to occur at lower levels of coping self-efficacy and higher perceived loss. Study 2 tested the same model among survivors of several wildfires in California during 2017 and 2018. Results of study 2 confirmed the importance of coping self-efficacy again as a significant bifurcation factor. In this case, peritraumatic dissociation was found to be a significant asymmetry controlling factor instead of loss. These results indicate that an upward shift in distress occurs when coping self-efficacy is lower and peritraumatic dissociation is higher. Collectively, the combined findings suggest that coping self-efficacy is a pivotal variable consistent with self-regulation shift theory predictions. Intervention implications are discussed.

Recovery and adjustment trajectories among Hurricane Florence survivors: Analysis utilizing nonlinear dynamic system modeling

“…Specifically, individuals with low levels of initial PTSD symptoms who also reported low CSE demonstrated an increased likelihood of discontinuous change in PTSD symptoms. More recently, Benight and colleagues (2020) replicated these findings in two samples of wildfire survivors in the United States. In the first, survivors of a wildfire in Colorado were assessed 2, 3, and 4 months after the wildfire, with results supporting that CSE at 2 months posttrauma predicted discontinuous changes in PTSD symptoms at the 4‐month assessment.…”

Coping self-efficacy mediates effects of posttraumatic distress on communal coping in parent-adolescence dyads after floods

“…For example, disaster-related losses are related to lower CSE, which is further related to subsequent elevated trauma-related distress (Benight et al, 1999). In addition to these functions of CSE, it can be a factor affecting the shift from low to high levels of PTSS in a disaster context (Benight et al, 2020).…”