Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality

Wu, Po-Chin; Liu, Shiao-Yen; Hsiao, Juei-Ming; Huang, Tsai-Yuan

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2016.04.005

Cited by 32 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…However, they are also vulnerable to shocks in tourism expenditures since, in most cases, these shocks tend to have a negative impact on their GDPs. This finding is consistent, among others, with the work of De Vita and Kyaw (2017), and validates the view of bilateral causality between tourism and economic activity through the mechanism described in Wu et al (2016): "national income can be used to improve the level of tourism infrastructure and sites that are available in these countries in order to attract tourism to their destination so that there will be an increase in the level of economic activities in the sector, which will thereby accelerate long-run economic growth". See also Antonakakis et al (2016); Kareem (2013); Zortuk (2009).…”

Section: Discussion and Policy Implicationssupporting

confidence: 92%

Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory

Soklis

Michaelides

2017

Annals of Tourism Research

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According to the World Tourism Organization, during the last decades, tourism has become one of the largest and most dynamic economic industries in the world. In this work, we employ a Network General Equilibrium GVAR model to analyze the impact of tourism expenditures on GDP and our approach allows for the existence of dominant economies in the system. The model is estimated simultaneously as a system of equations for a large panel of world economies and the results show that the less developed economies are quite vulnerable to changes in the tourism expenditures of the dominant economies. Meanwhile, USA is found to be largely unaffected by shocks in the tourism expenditures of the less developed economies.

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Section: Discussion and Policy Implicationssupporting

confidence: 92%

Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory

Soklis

Michaelides

2017

Annals of Tourism Research

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“…Therefore, the use of dynamic models is advocated to reach more accurate conclusions on the validity of the TLGH (Castro-Nuño, Molina-Toucedo, and Pablo-Romero 2013; Lee and Chang 2008). This is important particularly because the time element has been found to influence the tourism–economic growth relationship, both in magnitude and direction (Antonakakis, Dragouni, and Filis 2015; Wu et al 2016). Researchers are encouraged to take the full benefits of longitudinal data sets made available by organizations like the World Bank, the World Travel and Tourism Council, the United Nation World Tourism Organization, and others to study the TLGH.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tourism and Economic Growth: A Meta-regression Analysis

Nunkoo

Seetanah

Jaffur

et al. 2019

Journal of Travel Research

154

112

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Numerous studies have focused on delineating the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this article, we present the results of a rigorous meta-regression analysis based on 545 estimates drawn from 113 studies that empirically tested the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). The results suggest the presence of publication bias in the literature on this topic, where the majority of studies report positive and statistically significant estimates. Findings provide support for the TLGH, but they also suggest that the estimates are sensitive to a number of factors that are related to country data, specification, and estimation characteristics, and time span. Such sensitivities suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on reporting estimates of the relationship between tourism and economic growth across a variety of methodological characteristics and specification and estimation choices. The implications of the results for theory development are also discussed.

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“…F. Tang, Lai, and Ozturk 2015; C. F. Tang and Tan 2013; Wu et al 2016) and report different results, although all mention that the reasons for an unstable link are related to changes in economic and tourism conditions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Evidence of Dynamic Links between Tourism and Economic Growth Based on Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Tests

Liu

Song

2017

Journal of Travel Research

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The relationship between tourism and economic growth has created a large body of literature investigating the hypotheses of tourism-led economic growth (TLEGH) and economy-driven tourism growth (EDTGH). In this article, we use mixed-frequency Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship between the two types of growth in Hong Kong from 1974 to 2016. Our analysis reveals the following empirical regularities. First, the hidden short-run causality of TLEGH is detected, and EDTGH is proved in the short run and also in the long run when Granger causality tests are performed in a mixed-frequency framework. Second, mixed-frequency Granger tests demonstrate more power in testing the TLEGH and EDTGH via the rejection frequencies (bootstrap p value). Finally, rolling Granger causality tests reveal an unstable relationship between tourism and economic growth in both magnitude and direction, and the relationship is highly economic- and tourism-event-dependent.

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Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality

Cited by 32 publications

References 41 publications

Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory

Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory

Tourism and Economic Growth: A Meta-regression Analysis

New Evidence of Dynamic Links between Tourism and Economic Growth Based on Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Tests

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