North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction

Joseph, Susmitha; Sahai, A. K.; Sharmila, S.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Pillai, Prasanth A.; Rajeevan, M.; Kumar, Arun

doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5

Cited by 96 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 19 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Almost immediately following the disaster, the source areas and flow paths that devastated Kedarnath and downstream villages were reconstructed from remotely sensed imagery and available first-hand reports (Petley 2013). Subsequent scientific attention has largely focused on understanding the extreme rainfall triggering event (Dubey et al 2013;Joseph et al 2014;Singh et al 2014), reconstructing flood volumes and discharge (Das et al 2015;Durga Rao et al 2014) or discussions surrounding the important human aspects of the disaster, such as development and land use practices, physical and societal vulnerabilities and the government response to the disaster (Chand 2014;Sati and Gahalaut 2013;Uniyal 2013). Given that the heavy monsoon rain arrived earlier than normal, some authors have alluded to the role of rain-on-snow-type melting enhancing run-off and contributing to ground saturation and breaching of the lake (Arora et al 2014;Dobhal et al 2013a), with suggestions that June snow cover may even have been thicker than normal (Durga Rao et al 2014;Martha et al 2014;Singh et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition Abstract Heavy rainfall in June 2013 triggered flash flooding and landslides throughout the Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, killing more than 6000 people. The vast majority of fatalities and destruction resulted directly from a lake outburst and debris flow disaster originating from above the village of Kedarnath on June 16 and 17. Here, we provide a systematic analysis of the contributing factors leading to the Kedarnath disaster, both in terms of hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition. Topographic characteristics of the lake watershed above Kedarnath are compared with other glacial lakes across the north-western Himalayan states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and implications for glacier lake outburst hazard assessment in a changing climate are discussed. Our analysis suggests that the early onset of heavy monsoon rainfall (390 mm, June 10-17) immediately following a 4-week period of unusually rapid snow cover depletion and elevated streamflow was the crucial hydrometeorological factor, resulting in slope saturation and significant run-off into the small seasonal glacial lake. Between mid-May and mid-June 2013, snowcovered area above Kedarnath decreased by around 50 %. The unusual situation of the lake being dammed in a steep, unstable paraglacial environment but fed entirely from snowmelt and rainfall within a fluvial dominated watershed is important in the context of this disaster. A simple scheme enabling large-scale recognition of such an unfavourable topographic setting is introduced. In view of projected 21st century changes in monsoon timing and heavy precipitation in South Asia, more emphasis should be given to potential hydrometeorological triggering of lake outburst and debris flow disasters in the Himalaya.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Because of the lack of vegetation and higher friction over terrain slopes, the rainwater along with the rocks and mud gushed through the populated areas and caused heavy loss of human life and property. Joseph et al (2014) studied the basis of heavy rainfall events of Uttarakhand in the perspective of large scale monsoon and suggested that the monsoonal low pressure system enhances the low-level convergence with excessive moisture interacting with strong upper-level divergence produced through mid-latitude westerly trough that augmented the monsoonal heavy rainfall in the orographic region. The study also examines the extended range prediction of the event through coupled general circulation model CFSv2 and suggested that CFS model could predict the event 10-12 days in advance, though the mid-latitude influence is not captured.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A study on the heavy rainfall event around Kedarnath area (Uttarakhand) on 16 June 2013

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The heavy rainfall event during 14-17 June 2013 in Uttarakhand and more specifically, its occurrence around the Kedarnath region on 16 June 2013 with devastating floods and massive landslides ruined thousands of lives and properties. Increasing levels of water in two main rivers of the State, namely Alaknanda and Mandakini, resulted in the collapse of bridges, damaging and washing away of property worth many crores. In the present study, the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system (hereafter used as WRF model) is used to simulate this heavy rainfall event.The synoptic analysis at different locations such as Rudraprayag, Uttarkashi, Chamoli, Pauri, Tehri, Dehradun and adjoining districts suggested that the rainfall is about 200% more than normal. The rainfall associated with this event is well captured with the model simulation. The rainfall simulated by WRF model is in the range of 320-400 mm over Kedarnath during the actual occurrence of the event, which is in reasonably good agreement with the observed value of rainfall (325 mm) collected by Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology.

show abstract

“…The flooding in North-India was associated with a weaker monsoon LPS, that moved northwestward from the Bay of Bengal with air containing large amount of moisture. Strong low-level convergences were generated leading to deep convective towers over the state Uttarakhand in India, when the moist air from Bay of Bengal met a western disturbance that moved eastward (Joseph et al 2014;Dube et al 2014). These two flood incidents were both a result of a very anomalous weather condition.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Pakistan flooding during the 2010 monsoon season and the NorthIndia flooding in 2013 both affected several hundred thousand of people, caused thousands of fatalities and led to large economic losses (Houze et al 2011;Webster et al 2011;Joseph et al 2014;Dube et al 2014). Different weather conditions was leading to these two extreme rainfall incidents, however, monsoon LPS were present in the atmospheric circulation for both events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

Sørland

Sorteberg

2015

Clim Dyn

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction

Cited by 96 publications

References 19 publications

Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition

Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition

A study on the heavy rainfall event around Kedarnath area (Uttarakhand) on 16 June 2013

Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About