Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

Groisman, P. Y.; Shugart, Herman H.; Kicklighter, David W.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Graciela E.; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, A. I.; Loboda, Tatiana V.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Nghiem, S. V.; Bergen, Kathleen M.; Albrechtová, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, А.; Speranskaya, N. A.; Soja, A. J.; Beurs, Kirsten M. de; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, J. L.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga

doi:10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5

Cited by 73 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 413 publications

(409 reference statements)

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“…Central Asia has been changing in multiple ways over the past few decades (de Beurs et al 2015, Groisman et al 2017. While human influences play a significant role in large swaths of Central Asia (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large scale climate oscillation impacts on temperature, precipitation and land surface phenology in Central Asia

Beurs

Henebry

Owsley

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Central Asia has been rapidly changing in multiple ways over the past few decades. Increases in temperature and likely decreases in precipitation in Central Asia as the result of global climate change are making one of the most arid regions in the world even more susceptible to large-scale droughts. Global climate oscillations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, have previously been linked to observed weather patterns in Central Asia. However, until now it has been unclear how the different climate oscillations act simultaneously to affect the weather and subsequently the vegetated land surface in Central Asia. We fit well-established land surface phenology models to two versions of MODIS data to identify the land surface phenology of Central Asia between 2001 and 2016. We then combine five climate oscillation indices into one regression model and identify the relative importance of each of these indices on precipitation, temperature, and land surface phenology, to learn where each climate index has the strongest influence. Our analyses illustrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation predominantly influence temperature in the northern part of Central Asia. We also show that the Scandinavia index and the Multivariate ENSO index both reveal significant impacts on the precipitation in this region. Thus, we conclude that the land surface phenology across Central Asia is affected by several climate modes, both those that are strongly linked to far northern weather patterns and those that are forced by southern weather patterns, making this region a 'climate change hotspot' with strong spatial variations in weather patterns. We also show that regional climate patterns play a significant role in Central Asia, indicating that global climate patterns alone might not be sufficient to project weather patterns and subsequent land surface changes in this region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large scale climate oscillation impacts on temperature, precipitation and land surface phenology in Central Asia

Beurs

Henebry

Owsley

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Territorial expansion of forest ecosystems, however, has not always been connected with improvements in forest condition. Significant political, economic, and social drivers during the 20th century, such as two world wars, the rise of communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe, economic competition of COMECON states with Western Europe, and finally the collapse of communism and economic transformation in Central and Eastern Europe after 1989 have caused extensive land use/land cover changes (LU/LCC) and influenced forest health conditions in many regions of Central Europe (Kandeler and Innes 1995, Lambert et al 1995, Olofsson et al 2011, Kolář et al 2015, Groisman et al 2017, Vejpustková et al 2017. The Ore Mountains are very rich in mineral deposits (various ores and brown coal; Rojík 2015), and thus have been exploited for centuries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest cover and disturbance changes, and their driving forces: A case study in the Ore Mountains, Czechia, heavily affected by anthropogenic acidic pollution in the second half of the 20th century

Kupková

Potůčková

Lhotáková

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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This study focuses on the assessment of forest cover and disturbance changes in the heavily polluted Ore Mountains (Czechia, Central Europe) during the second half of the 20th century and onward. It analyzes the driving forces of forest changes with reference to environmental, societal and political development in the region. Anthropogenic air pollution, prevalently SO 2 from adjacent coal-burning industry, caused extensive forest decline, especially between the 1970s and 1980s. The most affected tree species was the main economical timber species, Norway spruce, which proved to be remarkably pollution-sensitive. We used Landsat time series, and a combination of an integrated forest Z-score and Disturbance Index (DI), to analyze the forest cover change and disturbance development during 1985-2016. In 1994, the forest cover reached its minimum there. The breakdown of communism in the 1990s implied fulfilling EU pollution standards via air protection regulations, investment in power plant desulphurization, and forest management measures, which were the main drivers of the forest recovery. The forest recovery continued till about 2005; however, fluctuations in forest cover and DI have continued during the last decade. Apparently, forests weakened by old loads are prone to new stress factors. Landsat time series represent a powerful data source to monitor the impact of these drivers on forests on a regional scale. Originally, the severely damaged eastern part with heavier acidic load and large forest decline recovered faster after remarkable lowering of air pollution loads compared to the western part, with lower loads and less damaged forests. However, the interactions of persisting driving forces (soil acidification, adverse meteorological events, climate change factors, air pollution, tree species composition and physiological state, pest outbreaks) still threaten the forests there, which remain moderately damaged in both parts of the Ore Mountains. This may lead to unpredictable forest development independently of societal and political driving forces.

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“…Here we apply DSM to determine 3-D changes in New Delhi (India) and Los Angeles (California, USA). The mathematical formulation and verification of the DSM are incorporated here by reference (Groisman et al, 2017;Nghiem et al, 2009Nghiem et al, , 2014Nguyen et al, 2018). For this study, we use backscatter data collected from 2000 to 2009 by the SeaWinds scatterometer aboard the QuikSCAT satellite (QuikSCAT Mission, 2014).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Short‐Term Impacts of the Megaurbanizations of New Delhi and Los Angeles Between 2000 and 2009

2019

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Urban areas are expanding worldwide due to increasing population, standard of living, and migration from rural areas. This study uses satellite and road data to quantify the urbanization of two megacities, New Delhi and Los Angeles, between 2000 and 2009. It then estimates, with a three‐dimensional nested global‐through‐urban climate, weather, and air pollution model, Gas, Aerosol, Transport, Radiation, General Circulation, Mesoscale, and Ocean Model, the short‐term atmospheric impacts of such urbanization alone. The simulations account for changes in meteorologically driven natural emissions, but not anthropogenic emissions, between 2000 and 2009. New Delhi's urban extent, defined based on the physical existence of its built structures and the transitional gradient from buildings to rural areas rather than on abrupt administrative borders, increased by ~80% and Los Angeles's by ~22.5% between 2000 and 2009. New Delhi experienced a larger increase in its urban extent relative to its population during this period than did Los Angeles. In both megacities, urbanization increased surface roughness, increasing shearing stress and vertical turbulent kinetic energy, decreasing near‐surface and boundary layer wind speed, contributing to higher column pollution levels. Urbanization may also have increased downward solar plus thermal infrared radiation fluxes to the ground and consequently upward latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ground to the air, increasing near‐surface air temperatures. As such, urbanization alone may have had notable impacts on both meteorology and air quality.

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Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

Cited by 73 publications

References 413 publications

Large scale climate oscillation impacts on temperature, precipitation and land surface phenology in Central Asia

Large scale climate oscillation impacts on temperature, precipitation and land surface phenology in Central Asia

Forest cover and disturbance changes, and their driving forces: A case study in the Ore Mountains, Czechia, heavily affected by anthropogenic acidic pollution in the second half of the 20th century

Short‐Term Impacts of the Megaurbanizations of New Delhi and Los Angeles Between 2000 and 2009

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