Northern Hemispheric cryosphere response to volcanic eruptions in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project 3 last millennium simulations

Abstract

[1] We analyzed last millennium simulations (circa 850-1850 Common Era) from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3) project to determine whether current state-of-the-art models produce sudden changes and persistence of cold conditions after large volcanic eruptions as inferred from geological records and previous climate modeling. Snow cover over Baffin Island in the eastern Canadian Arctic shows large-scale expansion (as seen in proxy records) in two of the five models with snow cover information available, although it is not sustained beyond a decade. Sea ice expansion in the North Atlantic is seen in some PMIP3 models after large eruptions, although none of these models produce significant centennial-scale effects. Warm Baffin Island summer climates stunt snow expansion in some models completely, and model topography tends to miss the critical plateau elevations that could sustain snow on the island. Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is lower in six of the eight models than in reconstructions over the past millennium. Annual average Northern Hemisphere mean climates have a range of 3 K across models, while Arctic summer land-only climates span more than 6 K. This has critical consequences on ice and snow formation and persistence in regions such as the Arctic where temperatures are near the freezing point and small temperature changes affect ice and snow feedback that could induce further climate changes. Thus, it is critical that models accurately represent absolute temperature.

Arctic cryosphere response in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G3 and G4 scenarios

“…In the historical period, differences in preferred temperature state between the models are evident; BNU‐ESM temperature is roughly 3.5°C colder than the rest of the models pre‐2020. As Berdahl and Robock [] discussed, this has important implications for regions where temperature is near the freezing point, where the change of state of water can induce important climate feedback. In subsequent sections, we will show that this impacts the amount of snow and ice produced in the models.…”

Stratospheric aerosol-Observations, processes, and impact on climate

“…Since the variability of stratospheric aerosol is dominated by volcanic eruptions, most analysis of stratospheric aerosol has focused on the volcanic impact. An increasing number of model studies have been published, which not only accounted for the volcanic impact on temperature and on atmospheric dynamics and composition but also on the hydrological cycle [e.g., Haywood et al , ; Iles et al , ; Zhuo et al , ], ocean heat content and dynamics [e.g., Stenchikov et al , ; Zanchettin et al , , ], marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry [e.g., Brovkin et al , ; Frölicher et al , ; Segschneider et al , ], and the cryosphere [e.g., Miller et al , ; Berdahl and Robock , ; Zanchettin et al , ]. A number of review papers give an overview of the current scientific understanding of volcanic‐climate interactions [e.g., Cole‐Dai , ; Timmreck , ].…”

Toward predicting volcanically-forced decadal climate variability

“…A milestone in our understanding of volcanically forced decadal climate variability was the recent recognition that the mean climate state, the phase and amplitude of ongoing internal variability at the time of an eruption, such as that associated with major climatic modes including, e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and the presence of additional forcing factors crucially determine how the climate system responds to the volcanic forcing (Zhong et al, 2010;Zanchettin et al, 2012Zanchettin et al, , 2013aBerdahl and Robock, 2013;Swingedouw et al, 2015;Pausata et al, 2016). Fig.…”