Nowhere to Go: Why Do Some Civil Wars Generate More Refugees than Others?

Turkoglu, Oguzhan; Chadefaux, Thomas

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3022732

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…For the former, studies focus on push and pull factors 1 and mainly examine variation in violence, economic development, and democracy in source and host countries, respectively. There is a near consensus regarding civil conflict and genocide being positively and significantly correlated with the number of refugees as people escape persecution (Davenport, Moore & Poe, 2003; Iqbal, 2007; Melander, Oberg & Hall, 2009; Moore & Shellman, 2004; Neumayer, 2005; Schmeidl, 1997; Turkoglu & Chadefaux, 2019; Uzonyi, 2014). People also flee from poverty, bad living conditions, and oppression, escaping to places where they will not experience such problems.…”

Section: Explaining Where Refugees Gomentioning

confidence: 99%

Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

Turkoglu

2021

Journal of Peace Research

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Why do some countries host more refugees than others? Previous research has focused on the role of geographical, political, and economic determinants, and little attention has been paid to civil conflict dynamics. In this article, I examine how a host country’s support for rebel groups may affect the number of refugees that it accommodates. Countries that support rebels host a higher number of refugees than others, as accommodating refugees can be the continuation of that support and help rebel groups in their armed struggle. By hosting people, countries may offer a sanctuary from which rebels can operate some of their insurgent activities. Rebel groups can exploit these camps for recruitment, training, and benefiting from the main services such as health care. In addition, when rebels operate in host countries, these countries may monitor, impact, or even direct the strategies of insurgent groups. Analysis of refugee flows between 1968 and 2011 suggests that countries which support rebel groups host twice as many refugees as others. Results are robust to various model specifications, two different sources for the main explanatory variable, matching analysis, and additional checks. Findings of this article highlight the importance of conflict dynamics in explaining the variation in refugee flows.

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Section: Explaining Where Refugees Gomentioning

confidence: 99%

Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

Turkoglu

2021

Journal of Peace Research

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“…Civil conflicts are one of the main causes of forced migration (Moore and Shellman 2004, Turkoglu and Chadefaux 2019), and Turkey is no exception. Internal displacement is a prominent aspect of the conflict, though there is no sole reliable source for estimates of displaced persons, which vary from 378,335 (a parliamentary report) to three to four million (NGO reports).…”

Section: The Turkish Casementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Migration on Political Support for Co-ethnics: Evidence From Turkey

Canavan

Turkoglu

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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In recent years, a record number of people have been forcibly displaced or migrated due to conflict. Whilst established political science research suggests that displaced communities are an added risk factor for conflict due to their support for extreme co-ethnic political parties and movements, this has been challenged by recent research which shows that migrants can be a moderating force. We offer a potential reconciliation of these divergent findings by distinguishing between first- and second-generation migrants. Due to their relative lack of conflict exposure, second-generation migrants will have significantly less support for co-ethnic political parties than first-generation migrants and those who remain. We test our argument using granular survey data comparing Kurds who migrated out of the conflict zone in Turkey with those who remained. The results support our theoretical framework and have important implications for our understanding of migrant attitudes and the long-term effects of conflict exposure.

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“…Such data give reason to think that earlier UNHCR data underrepresented true refugee numbers. Research has shown that conflict intensity, measured by the number of battle‐related deaths, is positively correlated to levels of forced migration (Melander, Öberg, and Hall 2009 ; Turkoglu and Chadefaux 2019 ). Yet, in the early 1950s, the number of battle‐related deaths in state‐based conflicts was at an all‐time high, while reported refugee stocks (Figure 2 ) were relatively low.…”

Section: The Intensity Spread and Distance Of Refugee Migration After...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and Patterns of Global Refugee Migration

Fransen¹,

Haas²

2021

Population & Development Rev

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This paper studies long-term trends and patterns in global refugee migration. We explore the intensity, spread, and distance of refugee migration at a global, regional, and country level between 1951 and 2018. The analysis did not detect a long-term increase in the global intensity of refugee migration. Primarily depending on levels of conflict, refugee numbers have fluctuated at levels of between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of the world population. Apparent increases in numbers of the globally displaced are driven by the inclusion of populations and countries that were previously excluded from the data. While refugee populations continue to be concentrated in countries with low-to-medium income levels, the analysis reveals several geographic shifts in refugee migration. Refugees tend to come from a shrinking number of origin countries and move to an increasing variety of destination countries. This trend seems to reflect a concentration of recurrent conflict cycles in a relatively small number of countries and a parallel increase in the number of safe destinations. Although the vast majority of refugees remain near to origin countries, the average distance between origin and destination countries has increased over time, presumably linked to the greater ease of travel and migration-facilitating networks.

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Nowhere to Go: Why Do Some Civil Wars Generate More Refugees than Others?

Cited by 4 publications

References 31 publications

Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

The Effect of Migration on Political Support for Co-ethnics: Evidence From Turkey

Trends and Patterns of Global Refugee Migration

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