Numerical modeling of an intense precipitation event and its associated lightning activity over northern Greece

Pytharoulis, I.; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Tegoulias, I.; Kartsios, Stergios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios; Karacostas, T.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.06.019

Cited by 22 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…From this calculation it results that the three best members are WSM6, THOM, and NSSL2C, while the worst one is the WDM6. These findings for the Genoa 2014 back‐building MCS confirm that WSM6, THOM, and NSSL2C microphysics are mostly recommended for the WRF kilometer‐scale (cloud‐resolving) simulation of flash‐flood‐producing storms associated with strong lightning phenomena; further, strengthening previous results of Rajeevan et al [], Giannaros et al [, ], and Pytharoulis et al [] obtained with WRF at cloud‐permitting grid‐spacing (around 2 km or above).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

“…Finally, the WRF version used in this work has an implementation of the Lightning Potential Index based on the Lynn and Yair [] and Yair et al [] formulation, and it is already applied in a single case study by Pytharoulis et al []. The LPI is defined as a volume integral of the total mass flux of ice and liquid water within a zone between 0 and −20°C isotherms (charging zone), where the noninductive mechanism (collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water) is most effective [ Saunders , ; Mansell et al , ].…”

Section: Modeling Setup and Verification Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To the best of the authors' knowledge, nowadays, this is the finest horizontal and vertical grid spacing ever achieved in the study of extreme rainfall and lightning deep moist convective storms like the Genoa 2014 V-shape event (with aforementioned hourly rainfall depth peak around 130 mm, 3 hourly around 200 mm and 24 h above 400 mm, and up to 3500 lightning per hour as shown in Figure 3c): previous studies addressed in their innermost domain at most the cloud-permitting range (about 6 and 2 km horizontal grid spacing, with 28 and 51 vertical levels, respectively [Giannaros et al, 2015 andPytharoulis et al, 2016]) for definitely lighter rainfall and lightning phenomena (around 100 m peak rain depth in 15 h or so,~350 lightning per hour). Both adopted grid spacings (5 and 1 km) allow to solve explicitly, albeit crudely, many convective processes [Kain et al, 2006[Kain et al, , 2008 so an explicit treatment of convection is chosen for this case supported also by the results of sensitivity tests done for the Genoa event in 2011 [Fiori et al, 2014].…”

Section: Modeling Setup and Verification Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Lightning Potential Index performances in multimicrophysical cloud‐resolving simulations of a back‐building mesoscale convective system: The Genoa 2014 event

et al. 2017

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Severe weather events are responsible for hundreds of fatalities and millions of euros of damage every year on the Mediterranean basin. Lightning activity is a characteristic phenomenon of severe weather and often accompanies torrential rainfall, which, under certain conditions like terrain type, slope, drainage, and soil saturation, may turn into flash flood. Building on the existing relationship between significant lightning activity and deep convection and precipitation, the performance of the Lightning Potential Index, as a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning occurrence in clouds, is here evaluated for the V‐shape back‐building Mesoscale Convective System which hit Genoa city (Italy) in 2014. An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting simulations at cloud‐permitting grid spacing (1 km) with different microphysical parameterizations is performed and compared to the available observational radar and lightning data. The results allow gaining a deeper understanding of the role of lightning phenomena in the predictability of V‐shape back‐building Mesoscale Convective Systems often producing flash flood over western Mediterranean complex topography areas. Moreover, they support the relevance of accurate lightning forecasting for the predictive ability of these severe events.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Modeling Setup and Verification Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modeling Setup and Verification Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Lightning Potential Index performances in multimicrophysical cloud‐resolving simulations of a back‐building mesoscale convective system: The Genoa 2014 event

et al. 2017

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“…Giannaros et al () presented the results of 1 year operational forecasting of lightning activity in Europe, by implementing a modified version of PR92, showing a strong dependence of the algorithm's performance to the convective parameterization scheme used. Pytharoulis et al () investigated the performance of the lightning potential index algorithm for an extreme precipitation event in north Greece by comparing lightning occurrence against the ZEUS network CG observations over a 24‐hr period. Their sensitivity experiments of topographical variations in elevation during a period of strong synoptic forcing also revealed a noteworthy influence of the convective parameterization scheme used on the spatial and temporal evolution of lightning activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance Evaluation of an Explicit Lightning Forecasting System

et al. 2018

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In this study, an explicit electrification and lightning parameterization scheme implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting model (E‐WRF, Fierro et al., , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00278.1) is evaluated against selected lightning diagnostic schemes. Convection‐permitting simulations of 10 high‐impact weather case studies over Greece are compared against lightning observations from the ZEUS ground‐based lightning detection network. The model's ability to accurately simulate these convective events is first evaluated through statistical scores of accumulated rainfall. The simulated flash origin density (FOD) fields are then assessed using statistical neighborhood methods. Overall, the simulated FOD fields have good agreement with the observations. Most of the lightning activity over the sea, however, is generally poorly forecasted. Lightning‐producing events over the sea near Greece mainly occur during the cold season. Thus, lightning forecast with E‐WRF appear to have better skill during the warm season. The simulated areal coverage of FOD using E‐WRF also reduces the false alarms of lightning activity both over land and sea compared to a well‐documented diagnostic lightning prediction scheme. Given its relatively low computational cost, these results support the potential use of E‐WRF for real‐time lightning predictions at convection‐allowing scales.

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“…Hydrological regimes are affected by climate change. In particular, an increase in the intensity and the frequency of floods, due to human-induced climate modifications, has been reported in the literature (Falter et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2014;Romang et al, 2011;Milly et al, 2002;White et al, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece, for operational flood forecasting

Galanaki

Lagouvardos

Kotroni

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. An integrated modeling approach for forecasting flood events is presented in the current study. An advanced flood forecasting model, which is based on the coupling of hydrological and atmospheric components, was used for a twofold objective: first to investigate the potential of a coupled hydrometeorological model to be used for flood forecasting at two medium-size drainage basins in the area of Attica (Greece) and second to investigate the influence of the use of the coupled hydrometeorological model on the precipitation forecast skill. For this reason, we used precipitation and hydrometric in situ data for six flood events at two selected drainage regions of Attica. The simulations were carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (WRF-only) and the WRF-Hydro system in a fully coupled mode, under which surface, subsurface, and channel hydrological processes were parameterized at a fine-resolution grid of 95 m approximately. Results showed that the coupled WRF-Hydro system was capable of producing the observed discharge during the flood episodes, after the adequate calibration method applied at the studied basins. This outcome provides confidence that the model configuration under the two-way atmospheric–hydrological coupling is robust and, thus, can be used for operational flood forecasting purposes in the area of Attica. In addition, the WRF-Hydro model showed a tendency to slightly improve the simulated precipitation in comparison to the precipitation produced by the atmospheric-only version of the model (WRF), demonstrating the capability of the coupled WRF-Hydro model to enhance the precipitation forecast skill for operational flood predictions.

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Numerical modeling of an intense precipitation event and its associated lightning activity over northern Greece

Cited by 22 publications

References 42 publications

Lightning Potential Index performances in multimicrophysical cloud‐resolving simulations of a back‐building mesoscale convective system: The Genoa 2014 event

Lightning Potential Index performances in multimicrophysical cloud‐resolving simulations of a back‐building mesoscale convective system: The Genoa 2014 event

Performance Evaluation of an Explicit Lightning Forecasting System

Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece, for operational flood forecasting

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