Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen Kracauer; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

doi:10.3133/ofr20171016

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 13 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…4.1), the leverage experiments demonstrate that the specific changes to the bay that amplify storm tides (channel, inlet depths and widths, landfill) were all directly imposed by humans. Some contribution of the landscape and storm tide changes, such as the wetland erosion in the center of the bay, may be influenced by natural erosion or changing sediment supply (Peteet et al, 2018;Hu et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2017). However, the complex morphologic study required to separate these human and natural factors is beyond the scope of the present study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…What were once large expanses of intertidal unvegetated area have shifted to being subtidal. This drop may reduce the sediment supply to the remaining marsh islands' substrate during storms (Wang et al, 2017). Furthermore, an increased depth in front of the marsh can increase wave energy and promote lateral erosion (Fagherazzi et al, 2006).…”

Section: Ecological Importance Of Landscape Changes Since the 1870smentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary

Orton

Sanderson

Talke

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In recent centuries, human activities have greatly modified the geomorphology of coastal regions. However, studies of historical and possible future changes in coastal flood extremes typically ignore the influence of geomorphic change. Here, we quantify the influence of 20th-century man-made changes to Jamaica Bay, New York City, on present-day storm tides. We develop and validate a hydrodynamic model for the 1870s based on detailed maps of bathymetry, seabed characteristics, topography, and tide observations for use alongside a present-day model. Predominantly through dredging, landfill, and inlet stabilization, the average water depth of the bay increased from 1.7 to 4.5 m, tidal surface area decreased from 92 to 72 km2, and the inlet minimum cross-sectional area expanded from 4800 to 8900 m2. Total (freshwater plus salt) marsh habitat area has declined from 61 to 15 km2 and intertidal unvegetated habitat area from 17 to 4.6 km2. A probabilistic flood hazard assessment with simulations of 144 storm events reveals that the landscape changes caused an increase of 0.28 m (12 %) in the 100-year storm tide, even larger than the influence of global sea level rise of about 0.23 m since the 1870s. Specific anthropogenic changes to estuary depth and area as well as inlet depth and width are shown through targeted modeling and dynamics-based considerations to be the most important drivers of increasing storm tides.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Ecological Importance Of Landscape Changes Since the 1870smentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary

Orton

Sanderson

Talke

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…4.1) demonstrate that the specific changes to the bay that amplify storm tides (channel, inlet depths and widths, landfill) were all directly imposed by humans. Some contribution of the landscape and storm tide changes, such as the wetland erosion in the center of the bay, may be influenced by natural erosion or changing sediment supply (Peteet et al, 2018;Hu et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2017). However, the complex morphologic study required to separate these human and natural factors is beyond the scope of the present study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…What were once large expanses of intertidal unvegetated area have shifted to being subtidal. This drop may reduce the sediment supply to the remaining marsh islands' substrate during storms (Wang et al, 2017). Also, an increased depth in front of the marsh can increase wave energy and promote lateral erosion (Fagherazzi et al, 2006).…”

Section: Ecological Importance Of Landscape Changes Since the 1870smentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm Tide Amplification and Habitat Changes due to Urbanization of a Lagoonal Estuary

Orton¹,

Sanderson²,

Talke³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In recent centuries, human activities have greatly modified the geomorphology of coastal regions. However, studies of historical and possible future changes in coastal flood extremes typically ignore the influence of geomorphic change. Here, we quantify the influence of 20th Century manmade changes to Jamaica Bay, New York City, on present-day storm tides. We develop and validate a hydrodynamic model for the 1870s, based on detailed maps of bathymetry, seabed characteristics, topography, and tide observations, for use alongside a present-day model. Predominantly through dredging, landfill, and inlet stabilization, the average water depth of the bay increased from 1.7 to 4.5 m, tidal surface area decreased from 92 to 72 km2, and the inlet minimum cross-sectional area expanded from 4800 to 8900 m2. Total (freshwater plus salt) marsh habitat area has declined from 61 to 15 km2 and intertidal unvegetated habitat area from 17 to 4.6 km2. A probabilistic flood hazard assessment with simulations of 144 storm events reveals that the landscape changes caused an increase of 0.28 m (12 %) in the 100-year storm tide, even larger than the influence of global sea level rise of about 0.23 m since the 1870s. Specific anthropogenic changes to estuary depth, area and inlet depth and width are shown through targeted modeling and dynamics-based considerations to be the most important drivers of increasing storm tides.

show abstract

“…For example, a comparison of computational expense of MDO and SWAN on an idealized coastal ocean grid showed MDO to be 58 times less expensive [ Marsooli et al ., ], yet accurately captures all important wave‐related processes for enclosed bays and estuaries, and thus provides a valuable new option for modeling of coastal systems. Thus, it can be a new and widely used wave model for use in operational ensemble forecasting systems [e.g., Georgas et al ., ], as well as annual or longer simulations of biogeochemistry or water quality [e.g., Feng et al ., ], or salt marsh erosion [e.g., Wang et al ., ]. To include a physics‐based feature in MDO that captures wave‐vegetation interactions, here, we formulate a vegetation‐induced energy dissipation term based on the method of Mendez and Losada [] and implement it in the energy balance equation of MDO.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling wave attenuation by salt marshes in Jamaica Bay, New York, using a new rapid wave model

2017

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Using a new rapid‐computation wave model, improved and validated in the present study, we quantify the value of salt marshes in Jamaica Bay—a highly urbanized estuary located in New York City—as natural buffers against storm waves. We augment the MDO phase‐averaged wave model by incorporating a vegetation‐drag‐induced energy dissipation term into its wave energy balance equation. We adopt an empirical formula from literature to determine the vegetation drag coefficient as a function of environmental conditions. Model evaluation using data from laboratory‐scale experiments show that the improved MDO model accurately captures wave height attenuation due to submerged and emergent vegetation. We apply the validated model to Jamaica Bay to quantify the influence of coastal‐scale salt marshes on storm waves. It is found that the impact of marsh islands is largest for storms with lower flood levels, due to wave breaking on the marsh island substrate. However, the role of the actual marsh plants, Spartina alterniflora, grows larger for storms with higher flood levels, when wave breaking does not occur and the vegetative drag becomes the main source of energy dissipation. For the latter case, seasonality of marsh height is important; at its maximum height in early fall, S. alterniflora causes twice the reduction as when it is at a shorter height in early summer. The model results also indicate that the vegetation drag coefficient varies 1 order of magnitude in the study area, and suggest exercising extra caution in using a constant drag coefficient in coastal wetlands.

show abstract

Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

Cited by 13 publications

References 13 publications

Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary

Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary

Storm Tide Amplification and Habitat Changes due to Urbanization of a Lagoonal Estuary

Modeling wave attenuation by salt marshes in Jamaica Bay, New York, using a new rapid wave model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About