Voltage-controlled magnetic anisotropy (VCMA) has attracted great attention as it allows faster switching and lower energy consumption compared to traditional spin-transfer torque-based magnetization switching. In this paper, we evaluate the operating margin and switching probability of VCMA-based magnetic tunnel junctions using realistic material and device parameters. For this paper, we developed a physics-based SPICE model that incorporates various VCMA parameters such as VCMA coefficient, energy barrier, time constant, and external magnetic field. Switching probability of a VCMA device was obtained by running Monte Carlo simulations including thermal fluctuation effects. A design space exploration was performed using the proposed simulation framework. The highest switching probabilities we were able to achieve were 94.9%, 84.8%, and 53.5%, for VCMA coefficient values of 33, 105, and 290 fJ • V −1• m −1 , respectively. Our study shows that for VCMA devices to become viable, their switching probability must be improved significantly either through new physics or material innovation.INDEX TERMS Magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ), switching probability, VCMA coefficient, voltage-controlled magnetic anisotropy (VCMA).