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iForest -Biogeosciences and Forestry
IntroductionAn increase in pest and disease outbreaks as well as projected climate warming constitutes a serious threat to forestry over the coming decades (Bolte et al. 2009, Sturrock et al. 2011. As a consequence of these impacts, individually or in combination, tree vitality and survival may decline resulting in reduced productivity (Leuzinger et al. 2005). The resilience of species to biotic and abiotic stresses, as well as their adaptation potential to changing environmental conditions, is important knowledge to guide sustainable forest management (Arend et al. 2011). Oak comprises the highest percentage of broadleaved woodland in Great Britain but its yield is expected to decline in the south and east under future climate projections (Broadmeadow et al. 2005). These forests possess a high economic and socio-economic value (Evans 1984, Grant & Edwards 2008, raising the question as to whether replacement with another oak species, better adapted to summer drought and wet winters, is an appropriate response to projected climate change. While Quercus species are believed to show high competitiveness under drier conditions than currently experienced in southern England (Abrams 1990, Broadmeadow et al. 2005, Eilmann et al. 2006, Thomas et al. (2002) found that a combination of waterlogging in winter and summer drought weakens oak to a level where diseases can attack more readily. Cases of drought-induced mortality have also been reported in Europe (Dreyer 1994, Brasier 1996, Gibbs & Greig 1997, Allen et al. 2010. Modelled results presented by Attorre et al. (2008) suggest that the general assumption regarding drought sensitivity is invalid; instead, the performance of oak is dependent on origin and the characteristics of individual species. Other authors attribute the decline of oak in Europe to a combination of several factors, including infection by Phytophthora cinnamomi exacerbated by climatic factors (Brasier & Scott 1994). Thomas & Blank (1996) propose nutrient imbalance as the reason for oak decline, while Andersson et al. (2011) concluded that the decline of oak and its inevitable death is a long process which can begin decades previously.Tree ring analysis can be used to better understand the potential for an onset of decline driven by responses to climate (Schweingruber 1988(Schweingruber , 1990. Despite age and management-related variation in growth, the sensitivity of a species on a given site to environmental changes can be assessed (Friedrichs et al. 2009). Tree-ring analysis is regularly used to evaluate climate-growth interactions as well as establishing the drivers for tree mortality (Cook et al. 1987). While site conditions modulate climate-growth correlations (Wilson et al. 2008) information on species-specific climate responses still can be derived (Carrer 2011, Sanders et al. 2012. This approach was the subject of a number of dendrochronological studies (Leblanc & Foster 1992, Dwyer et al. 1995, Eilmann et al. 2006, Danek et al. 2007, Friedrichs et al. 2...