Obama's Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost?

Lewis‐Beck, Michael S.; Tien, Charles; Nadeau, Richard

doi:10.1017/s1049096510990616

Cited by 57 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The most important finding of the analysis, however, is that racism—regardless of how it was measured—appears to have been an important motive in voting for Trump. As such, this is not a new finding because we know that, indeed, in 2008 Barack Obama suffered from a lack of support among racist voters (Lewis-Beck, Tien, and Nadeau 2010). The 2016 campaign, however, demonstrated that the effect of racism is not only present when voters have a choice among candidates with different ethnic backgrounds.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Explaining the Trump Vote: The Effect of Racist Resentment and Anti-Immigrant Sentiments

Hooghe

Dassonneville

2018

APSC

181

106

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The campaign leading to the 2016 US presidential election included a number of unconventional forms of campaign rhetoric. In earlier analyses, it was claimed that the Trump victory could be seen as a form of protest voting. This article analyzes the determinants of voters’ choices to investigate the validity of this claim. Based on a sample of the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, our analyses suggest that a Trump vote cannot be explained by a lack of trust in politics or low levels of satisfaction with democracy, as would be assumed given the extant literature on protest voting. However, indicators of racist resentment and anti-immigrant sentiments proved to be important determinants of a Trump vote—even when controlling for more traditional vote-choice determinants. Despite ongoing discussion about the empirical validity of racist resentment and anti-immigrant sentiments, both concepts proved to be roughly equally powerful in explaining a Trump vote.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Explaining the Trump Vote: The Effect of Racist Resentment and Anti-Immigrant Sentiments

Hooghe

Dassonneville

2018

APSC

181

106

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“…In a highly controlled logistic regression equation, we showed that respondents who felt Obama “favored blacks” were less likely to declare a vote for him, even when facing severe economic decline. Overall, we calculated that this racially motivated group cost Obama about five percentage points of the total popular vote (Lewis-Beck, Tien, and Nadeau 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay?

Tien

Nadeau

Lewis‐Beck

2012

APSC

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Will President Obama lose votes in 2012 because of racial prejudice? For 2008, we estimated, via a carefully controlled, national survey-based study, that on balance he lost about five percentage points in popular vote share due to intolerance for his race on the part of some voters. What about 2012? There are at least three possibilities: (1) the presidency has become postracial, and the vote will register no racial cost; (2) intolerance has increased, and the vote will register an increased racial cost; and (3) intolerance has decreased, and the vote will register a decreased racial cost. Our evidence, drawn from an analysis comparable to that carried out for 2008, suggests Obama will pay a racial cost of three percentage points in popular vote share. In other words, his candidacy will experience a decrease in racial cost, if a small one. In 2008, this racial cost denied Obama a landslide victory. In the context of a closer election in 2012, this persistent racial cost, even smaller in size, could perhaps cost him his reelection.

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“…The thrust of this literature has found that a candidate's race has an overall negative effect on the perception of the candidate among whites (Schaffner, 2011;Kinder and Dale-Riddle, 2012;Stephens-Davidowitz, 2013;Lewis-Beck, Tien and Nadeau, 2010;Highton, 2011). Studies about African-American and Latino congressional candidates find that they are perceived as more ideologically liberal and less competent than their white counterparts (Jacobsmeier, 2014;Sigelman et al, 1995;McDermott, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asian Candidates in America

Visalvanich

2016

Political Research Quarterly

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Racial stereotyping has been found to handicap African American and Latino candidates in negative ways. It is less clear how racial stereotypes may change the fortunes of Asian candidates. This paper explores the candidacies of Asian Americans with an experiment run through Amazon Mechanical Turk as well as real-world evaluations of Asian American candidates using the Cooperative Congressional Elections Study. In my experiments, I find that Asian candidates do significantly better than white candidates across different biographical scenarios (conservative, liberal, and foreign). I find that, contrary to expectations, Asian candidates are not significantly disadvantaged from being immigrant and foreign born. My experimental results mirror my observational results, which show that Asian Democrats are significantly advantaged even when compared with whites. These results indicate that Asian candidates in America face a set of racial-political stereotypes that are unique to their racial subgroup.

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Obama's Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost?

Cited by 57 publications

References 20 publications

Explaining the Trump Vote: The Effect of Racist Resentment and Anti-Immigrant Sentiments

Explaining the Trump Vote: The Effect of Racist Resentment and Anti-Immigrant Sentiments

Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay?

Asian Candidates in America

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