Observation-constrained multicycle dynamic models of the Pingding Shan earthquake gate along the Altyn Tagh Fault

Liu, Dunyu; Duan, Benchun; Prush, Veronica; Oskin, M. E.; Liu‐Zeng, Jing

doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2021.228948

Cited by 10 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…We use an explicit finite element code, EQdyna (Duan, 2019; Duan et al., 2019; Duan & Oglesby, 2006; Liu et al., 2021), to simulate the coseismic dynamic ruptures over earthquake cycles. EQdyna has been verified in the SCEC dynamic code verification exercise and performs well (Harris et al., 2009; Harris et al., 2011; Harris et al., 2018).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Detailed descriptions can be found in Duan and Oglesby (2005) and Liu et al. (2021). This is an approximation of the interseismic phase of an earthquake cycle, but it captures the impacts of tectonic loading and stress relaxation on fault stress evolution between two consecutive earthquakes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…

{f}_{r}

are 0.49, 0.29, 0.69, respectively, for Model A, B, and C. Critical slip velocity

{v}_{0}

is 0.2 m, and critical slip distance

{d}_{0}

is 0.5 m for all the models. These values are chosen to promote faster friction restrengthening in dynamic ruptures that tend to reduce periodicity of recurrence intervals (Liu et al., 2021). The half length of nucleation patch size is 2 km and a fixed rupture velocity of 1.5 km/s is assumed within the nucleation patch for smooth initiation of dynamic ruptures.…”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2002)]. Multicycle dynamic models are developed to address this limitation and incorporate stress heterogeneities from past earthquakes (Duan, 2019; Duan et al., 2019; Duan & Oglesby, 2005, 2006, 2007; Liu et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2021). For example, Liu et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Multicycle dynamic models are developed to address this limitation and incorporate stress heterogeneities from past earthquakes (Duan, 2019;Duan et al, 2019;Duan & Oglesby, 2005, 2006Liu et al, 2020;Liu et al, 2021). For example, Liu et al (2021) demonstrate that dynamic ruptures through geometric complexities, local fault-strike-dependent tectonic loading and relaxation, and the residual stress from past earthquakes are three major sources of stress heterogeneity. In the fault system composed of the SSAF, herein including the Carrizo, Big Bend, Mojave and San Bernardino sections, and the northern San Jacinto fault (NSJF) that consists of the Claremont and Clark strands (Figure 1), 10.1029/2021JB023420 3 of 22 paleoseismic data show recurrence intervals between earthquakes average about 100-150 years.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Observation‐Constrained Multicycle Dynamic Models of the Southern San Andreas and the Northern San Jacinto Faults: Addressing Complexity in Paleoearthquake Extent and Recurrence With Realistic 2D Fault Geometry

et al. 2022

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Understanding mechanical conditions that lead to complexity in earthquakes is important to seismic hazard analysis. In this study, we simulate physics‐based multicycle dynamic models of the San Andreas fault (Carrizo through San Bernardino sections) and the San Jacinto fault (Claremont and Clark strands). We focus on a complex fault geometry based on the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model and its effect over multiple earthquake cycles. Using geodetically derived strain rates, we validate the models against geologic slip rates and recurrence intervals at various paleoseismic sites. We find that the interactions among fault geometry, dynamic rupture and interseismic stress accumulation produce stress heterogeneities, leading to rupture segmentation and variability in earthquake recurrence. Our models produce earthquakes with rupture extents similar to a recent comprehensive paleoseismic catalog. The “earthquake gates” of the Big Bend and the Cajon Pass occasionally impede dynamic ruptures. The angle of compression, which is the subtraction of the maximum shear strain rate direction from the local fault strike, can better determine the likelihood of the impedance of restraining bends to dynamic ruptures. Because the Big Bend has an angle of compression of ∼20°, ruptures that traverse the Big Bend, like the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, are more frequent than expected based on empirical relations which predict the ∼40° restraining bend to terminate most ruptures. Our models indicate that large ruptures tend to initiate north of the Big Bend and propagate southwards, similar to the 1857 earthquake, providing critical information for ground shaking assessment in the region.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…

{f}_{r}

are 0.49, 0.29, 0.69, respectively, for Model A, B, and C. Critical slip velocity

{v}_{0}

is 0.2 m, and critical slip distance

{d}_{0}

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observation‐Constrained Multicycle Dynamic Models of the Southern San Andreas and the Northern San Jacinto Faults: Addressing Complexity in Paleoearthquake Extent and Recurrence With Realistic 2D Fault Geometry

et al. 2022

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Spatiotemporal Clustering of Paleoseismicity in the Walker Lane, Nevada: an Extensional Supercycle?

Pierce

2021

Preprint

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Physics-based dynamic rupture models, fault interaction and ground motion simulations for the segmented Húsavík-Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland

Li¹,

Gabriel

Ulrich

et al. 2022

Preprint

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We present 3-D spontaneous dynamic rupture earthquake scenarios for the Húsavík-Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) in Northern Iceland. We construct three fault system models consisting of up to 55 segments of varying geometric complexity. By varying hypocenter locations, we analyze rupture dynamics, fault interactions and their associated ground motions and observational uncertainties in 79 scenarios. We use regional observations to constrain 3-D subsurface velocities and viscoelastic attenuation as well as fault stress and strength. Our models account for topo-bathymetry, off-fault plasticity and we explore the effect of fault roughness. Our spontaneous dynamic rupture scenarios can match historic magnitudes. We show that the fault system segmentation and geometry, hypocenter locations, initial stress conditions and fault roughness have strong effects on multi-fault rupture dynamics across the HFFZ. Breaking of different portions of the same fault system leads to varying rupture dynamics, slip distributions and magnitudes. All dynamic rupture scenarios yield highly heterogeneous near-field ground motions. We observe amplification from rupture directivity, geometric complexities, and amplification and shielding due to topography. We recover a magnitude-consistent attenuation relationship in good agreement with new regional empirical ground motion models. Physics-based ground motion variability changes with distance and increases for unilateral vs. bilateral rupture. Our study illustrates important ingredients for fully physics-based, regional earthquake scenarios, their respective importance for rupture dynamics and ground motion modeling and how they can be observationally constrained and verified. We entail that dynamic rupture scenarios can be useful for non-ergodic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, specifically in data-limited regions.

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Observation-constrained multicycle dynamic models of the Pingding Shan earthquake gate along the Altyn Tagh Fault

Cited by 10 publications

References 58 publications

Observation‐Constrained Multicycle Dynamic Models of the Southern San Andreas and the Northern San Jacinto Faults: Addressing Complexity in Paleoearthquake Extent and Recurrence With Realistic 2D Fault Geometry

Observation‐Constrained Multicycle Dynamic Models of the Southern San Andreas and the Northern San Jacinto Faults: Addressing Complexity in Paleoearthquake Extent and Recurrence With Realistic 2D Fault Geometry

Spatiotemporal Clustering of Paleoseismicity in the Walker Lane, Nevada: an Extensional Supercycle?

Physics-based dynamic rupture models, fault interaction and ground motion simulations for the segmented Húsavík-Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland

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