Observations of a stratospheric aerosol &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;veil&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt; from a tropical volcanic eruption in December 1808: is this the &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Unknown&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;  ∼1809 eruption?

Guevara-Murua, Alvaro; Williams, Caroline A.; Hendy, Erica; Rust, Alison; Cashman, Katharine V.

doi:10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014

Cited by 38 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 55 publications

(90 reference statements)

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“…The year 1699 and the proceeding decades are known for being years of recurrent explosive eruptions in Iceland and Indonesia (Le Roy Ladurie, 2004), inducing great famines around Europe and North America (Mitchison, 2002). The 1809 eruption of unknown source (Guevara-Murua et al, 2014) and the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora induced a decade of very low summer temperature and high precipitation (Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015). This was the coldest decade of the Little Ice Age (Lamb, 1995), corresponding also to glacier advance phases in the Alps that reached their first maximum extent of the Holocene (the second and last, was around 1850; e.g., Matthews and Briffa, 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We computed reduction of error (RE; Fritts, 1976) and coefficient of efficiency (CE; Briffa et al, 1988) statistics to assess the quality of the reconstructions. We then used the reconstructed series of late summer temperatures over the period 1901-1980 to build a spatial correlation map with the KNMI Climate Explorer (https://climexp.knmi.nl/; Trouet and van Oldenborgh, 2013), using the 0.5 • grid of August-September average temperature and of AS average precipitation (CRU TS 4.0, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia Harris et al, 2014). We used this independent data set instead of the Italian one, as our primary goal was to analyze how far from the Italian Peninsula the reconstructed climatology is still representative.…”

Section: Database Information and Site Locationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

et al. 2017

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Abstract.A first assessment of the main climatic drivers that modulate the tree-ring width (RW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) along the Italian Peninsula and northeastern Sicily was performed using 27 forest sites, which include conifers (RW and MXD) and broadleaves (only RW). Tree-ring data were compared using the correlation analysis of the monthly and seasonal variables of temperature, precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI, used to characterize meteorological droughts) against each speciesspecific site chronology and against the highly sensitive to climate (HSTC) chronologies (based on selected indexed individual series). We find that climate signals in conifer MXD are stronger and more stable over time than those in conifer and broadleaf RW. In particular, conifer MXD variability is directly influenced by the late summer (August, September) temperature and is inversely influenced by the summer precipitation and droughts (SPI at a timescale of 3 months). The MXD sensitivity to August-September (AS) temperature and to summer drought is mainly driven by the latitudinal gradient of summer precipitation amounts, with sites in the northern Apennines showing stronger climate signals than sites in the south. Conifer RW is influenced by the temperature and drought of the previous summer, whereas broadleaf RW is more influenced by summer precipitation and drought of the current growing season. The reconstruction of the late summer temperatures for the Italian Peninsula for the past 300 years, based on the HSTC chronology of conifer MXD, shows a stable model performance that underlines periods of climatic cooling (and likely also wetter conditions) in 1699, 1740, 1814, 1914 and 1938, and follows well the variability of the instrumental record and of other tree-ring-based reconstructions in the region. Considering a Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1452 G. Leonelli et al.: Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from the Italian Peninsula 20-year low-pass-filtered series, the reconstructed temperature record consistently deviates < 1 • C from the instrumental record. This divergence may also be due to the precipitation patterns and drought stresses that influence the tree-ring MXD at our study sites. The reconstructed late summer temperature variability is also linked to summer drought conditions and it is valid for the west-east oriented region including Sardinia, Sicily, the Italian Peninsula and the western Balkan area along the Adriatic coast.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Database Information and Site Locationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

et al. 2017

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“…Most simulations aimed at reproducing tree ring and ice core proxy archives find that volcanic forcing is the major driver of short-lived temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere for the past~1,000 years (e.g., Schneider et al, 2009;Schurer et al, 2014). Tree ring density temperature reconstructions (Neukom et al, 2014;Wilson et al, 2016) show a protracted cooling during the Dalton Minimum (circa 1807-1832) that has been related to three major explosive volcanic eruptions in 1808-1809 (unknown tropical volcano) (Guevara-Murua et al, 2014), in 1815 (Tambora) (Raible et al, 2016), and in 1835 (Cosigüina) (Longpré et al, 2014). Although the response of summer temperatures to large explosive volcanic eruptions is a coherent cooling over East Asia and the tropical ocean (Man et al, 2014), the figure obtained in these simulations for South Japan is only À0.5°C, which is within the uncertainties associated with coral-derived SSTs.…”

Section: Sst Variability From Little Ice Agementioning

confidence: 99%

A Reconstruction of Subtropical Western North Pacific SST Variability Back to 1578, Based on a Porites Coral Sr/Ca Record from the Northern Ryukyus, Japan

2017

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We present a seasonal reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) from 1578 to 2008, based on a Porites coral Sr/Ca record from the northern Ryukyus, within the Kuroshio southern recirculation gyre. Interannual SST anomalies are generally ~0.5°C, making Sr/Ca‐derived SST reconstructions a challenging task. Replicate measurements along adjacent coral growth axes, enabled by the laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry technique used here, give evidence of rather large uncertainties. Nonetheless, derived winter SST anomalies are significantly correlated with the Western Pacific atmospheric pattern which has a dominant influence on winter temperature in East Asia. Annual mean SSTs show interdecadal variations, notably cold intervals between 1670 and 1700 during the Maunder Minimum (MM) and between 1766 and 1788 characterized by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Cold summers in 1783 and 1784 coincide with the long‐lasting Laki eruption that had a profound impact on the Northern Hemisphere climate, including the severe “Tenmei” famine in Japan. The decades between 1855 and 1900 are significantly cooler than the first half of the twentieth century, while those between 1700 and 1765, following the MM, are warmer than average. SST variability in the Ryukyus is only marginally influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, so that external forcing remains the main driver of low‐frequency temperature changes. However, the close connection between the Kuroshio extension (KE) and its recirculation gyre suggests that decadal SST anomalies associated with the KE front also impact the Ryukyus, and there is a possible additional role for feedback of the Kuroshio‐Oyashio variability to the large‐scale atmosphere at decadal timescale.

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“…This study tackles this question by systematically investigating the relative role of forcing and initialcondition uncertainties on the spread of posteruption surface climate anomalies in a large ensemble of coupled climate simulations of the 1815 Tambora eruption in Indonesia. The Tambora eruption is the strongest volcanic event of the last 500 years, with very clear volcanic sulfate signals observed in polar ice cores (Marshall et al, 2018;Sigl et al, 2015); its volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection is comparatively well constrained compared to other eruptions of the past millennium (Toohey & Sigl, 2017), whereas its radiative forcing remains affected by substantial uncertainty (Raible et al, 2016;Zanchettin et al, 2016); it is regarded as a test case for high-impact volcanic eruptions, with the 1816 "year without a summer" over Europe in its aftermath being iconic of posteruption regional cooling (Raible et al, 2016); it was preceded by a VEI-6 tropical eruption of unknown location in 1809 (Cole-Dai et al, 2009;Guevara-Murua et al, 2014); it is included in the protocol of the CMIP6-endorsed "Climate Model Intercomparison on the climatic response to volcanic forcing" (VolMIP, Zanchettin et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clarifying the Relative Role of Forcing Uncertainties and Initial‐Condition Unknowns in Spreading the Climate Response to Volcanic Eruptions

Zanchettin

Timmreck

Toohey

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Radiative forcing from volcanic aerosol impacts surface temperatures; however, the background climate state also affects the response. A key question thus concerns whether constraining forcing estimates is more important than constraining initial conditions for accurate simulation and attribution of posteruption climate anomalies. Here we test whether different realistic volcanic forcing magnitudes for the 1815 Tambora eruption yield distinguishable ensemble surface temperature responses. We perform a cluster analysis on a superensemble of climate simulations including three 30‐member ensembles using the same set of initial conditions but different volcanic forcings based on uncertainty estimates. Results clarify how forcing uncertainties can overwhelm initial‐condition spread in boreal summer due to strong direct radiative impact, while the effect of initial conditions predominate in winter, when dynamics contribute to large ensemble spread. In our setup, current uncertainties affecting reconstruction‐simulation comparisons prevent conclusions about the magnitude of the Tambora eruption and its relation to the “year without summer.”

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Observations of a stratospheric aerosol <i>veil</i> from a tropical volcanic eruption in December 1808: is this the <i>Unknown</i> ∼1809 eruption?

Abstract: Abstract. The Unknown eruption of 1808/1809 was the second most explosive SO 2

Cited by 38 publications

References 55 publications

Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

A Reconstruction of Subtropical Western North Pacific SST Variability Back to 1578, Based on a Porites Coral Sr/Ca Record from the Northern Ryukyus, Japan

Clarifying the Relative Role of Forcing Uncertainties and Initial‐Condition Unknowns in Spreading the Climate Response to Volcanic Eruptions

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