Observed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade

Abstract

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Reply to: Observed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade

“…However, the stringency index that they present for the United States and the UK from April to July 2020 is almost same as the one for China in March ( fig. 1c in Verschuur et al 5 ). However, anecdotal evidence suggests that the lockdown in China was much more stringent than any of the lockdowns in the UK or the United States, raising doubt about the usability of the stringency index for measuring the impact of the labour supply.…”

“…Regarding their concerns about en route goods: Verschuur and colleagues 5 argue that the en route goods serve as a positive buffer to the downstream sectors and slow the forward effect. Guan et al 1 modelled this aspect as the inventory of each sector, although this is a different concept to the idea of en route goods.…”

“…Considering the different impacts of COVID-19 control measures on air and sea cargo 7,8 , it is difficult to use the estimated results from ship tracking data to represent changes in all international trade due to the pandemic. Change in online services is another factor that is included by Guan et al 1 but not by Verschuur and colleagues 5 . During the COVID-19 pandemic, online services related to physical production have declined due to the decline in physical production, whereas purely online services (such as education or meeting software services) have increased 9 .…”

“…Despite considerable data limitations at this early stage of the outbreak, we provided a number of insights important for decision-makers attempting to minimize economic loss and acting under substantial urgency and uncertainty. In their recent communication, J. Verschuur and colleagues 5 estimated global supply-chain dynamics using real-time ship tracking data and voiced some concerns on our modelling study 1 based on the comparison of their findings with our modelling results. While we appreciate their complementary follow-up research based on real-time data, we posit that it is not possible to compare the stylized lockdown scenarios we developed with their data reflecting actual changes in the economy and policies that were implemented in response to COVID-19.…”

“…Second, the data presented by Verschuur and colleagues 5 reflect only a specific part of international trade, again making their results not comparable with those of our model, which considers all international trade. Although Verschuur and colleagues 5 argue that "Maritime trade accounts for approximately 80% of international trade in terms of volume", about 40% of trade by value is dispatched by air 6 . Considering the different impacts of COVID-19 control measures on air and sea cargo 7,8 , it is difficult to use the estimated results from ship tracking data to represent changes in all international trade due to the pandemic.…”