Occurrence and drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in Northern Europe during 1979–2016

Sui, Cuijuan; Yu, Lejiang; Vihma, Timo

doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1788368

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…The positive phase (SCA+) is associated with reduced precipitation over Scandinavia and increased precipitation over the Northeast Atlantic due to corresponding anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies (Figures 1e,f and 2e,f) (Bueh and Nakamura, 2007;Marshall et al, 2020). In winter, negative temperature anomalies also occur over northern Europe during SCA+ (Sui et al, 2020) with warmer temperatures over western Europe during the negative phase (SCA−) (Vihma et al, 2020).…”

Section: Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe

Craig

Allan

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Teleconnection patterns affect the weather and climate on both interannual and decadal timescales which in turn affects various socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. We use three climate indices based on E-OBS data from the INDECIS dataset (growing season onset [ogs10], growing season rainfall [gsr] and growing season temperature [ta_o]) to assess the interannual variability and trends over 1950-2017 associated with four teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], East Atlantic pattern [EA], Scandinavian pattern [SCA] and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern [EAWR]) using linear regression to extract the signal of each teleconnection pattern and their contribution to interannual variability. Trends towards an earlier growing season onset are found across most of Europe in low-lying regions. The NAO dominates interannual variability in northwest Europe where an NAO index of 1 is associated with earlier ogs10 of about 10 days and the EA dominates the continent with a trend towards the positive EA phase driving an earlier growing season onset of 1.1-1.7 daysÁdecade −1 in five regions (Great Britain and Ireland, France, Italy, Poland and North Germany, Hungary, Balkans). The EA and SCA gsr signals have north/south splits of orientation: positive EA is linked to increased gsr in northern regions and reduced gsr in southern Europe, and vice versa for SCA. Correlations between gsr interannual variability and the teleconnection contributions are strongest in the Mediterranean regions and south Scandinavia with maxima of 0.41 and 0.46, respectively. Decreasing ta_o trends in Romania are explained by poordata coverage causing problems with the EOBS gridding algorithm when new stations are incorporated from 1961. The net effect is that Romanian ta_o is about 1.5 C cooler than expected compared to trends from surrounding countries. Improved spatial and temporal data coverage will benefit the EOBS dataset and prevent such erroneous trends.

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Section: Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe

Craig

Allan

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Warm extremes in the winter are less often examined in the literature than hot extremes in the summer, while warm extremes in both spring and autumn have not been analyzed to any meaningful extent. Sui et al [64] found statistically significant increases for extremely warm days in wintertime in Northern Europe for the period 1979-2016. Kivinen et al [63] obtained similar results for the Northern Fennoscandia for the period 1914-2013, and determined the occurrence of a much higher number of extremely warm days in April and October over the last 20 years of the study period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Seasonal Variability of Trends in Regional Hot and Warm Temperature Extremes in Europe

Sulikowska

Wypych

2021

Atmosphere

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Extremely hot or warm weather over the course of the year may have significant impacts on many aspects of human life, the economy, and the natural environment. Until now a thorough assessment of changes of extreme heat or warm events in Europe was hindered by the number of metrics employed, time periods examined, and most studies being conducted in the summer season only. Here, we employ the Extremity Index (EI) to investigate long-term trends in extremely hot or warm days in Europe over the course of the year, with a special focus on their frequency, spatial extent, and intensity. An extreme temperature event (ETE) is defined as a day with an unusually high temperature for a given location and season, even if such a temperature would not be considered extremely high in an absolute sense. The research is conducted in five spatial domains that together cover a large portion of Europe. The period of the most recent 70 years is considered. In all examined regions, mainly significant increasing trends since 1950 are evident for seasonal EI; therefore, also for ETE frequency, intensity, and spatial range. Yet, every region is characterized by its own event pattern, and trends across the continent strongly vary geographically and seasonally. Our study highlights that examined trends of temperature extremes are accelerating and in the last 40 years the rate of change has been even more than three times greater than in the entire study period. The greatest changes were noted for the summer season in Central Europe and Eastern Europe for the most recent 40-year period.

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“…A higher persistence of cold spells in winter compared with warm spells in summer (see Table 3) is related to the persistence of circulation patterns which cause these extremes. In summer, the southerly wind brings warm dry air into Central and Northern Europe (Vautard et al ., 2007), whereas easterly wind causes extremely cold spells in winter (Sui et al ., 2020). The easterly wind which is responsible for cold spells is more stable compared with the southerly wind in summer (Ondřej Lhotka – Personal communication via email).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of air temperature in Poland from 1994 to 2019 based on hourly data

Sachindra

Nowosad

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study was conducted to understand the characteristics of hourly air temperature across Poland over the period 1994–2019. For this purpose, hourly temperature observations from 38 stations were used. It was found that the average temperature at all stations in the period 2007–2019 (second half of data) is higher than that in the period 1994–2006 (first half of data). The increase in the average temperature in autumn was smaller than that in the other seasons. In the northern part of Poland, the increase in the average temperature in spring was more notable compared with that in the other seasons. In the southern part of Poland, the increase in the average temperature in winter and summer was more notable compared with that in the other seasons. At all stations, a statistically significant increasing trend in the average temperature was seen in the period 1994–2019. This trend was highest at Warszawa (0.067°C/year) and lowest at Kraków Balice (0.029°C/year). At all stations, the frequency of relatively low/high temperatures was lesser/higher in the period 2007–2019 compared with that in the period 1994–2006 indicating that temperature distribution has shifted toward a warmer climate. In comparison to the period 1994–2006, in the period 2007–2019, in the southern region of Poland, a large increase in the average number of hours per year above high percentiles and a large decrease in the average number of hours per year below low percentiles was observed. Also, it was found that warm/cold spells are becoming more/less frequent in Poland. In many stations, compared with the period 1994–2006, in the period 2007–2019, an increase in the length of the longest spell of hours above the 99th percentile and below the first percentile was observed.

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Occurrence and drivers of wintertime temperature extremes in Northern Europe during 1979–2016

Cited by 12 publications

References 67 publications

The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe

The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe

Seasonal Variability of Trends in Regional Hot and Warm Temperature Extremes in Europe

Characteristics of air temperature in Poland from 1994 to 2019 based on hourly data

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