No abstract

The Antarctic sea ice variability has been linked to tropical sea surface temperature. However, little is known as to whether and how the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) influences Antarctic sea ice changes. We revealed the existence of a teleconnection between the IOMB and Antarctic sea ice anomalies, which is much stronger in austral spring and autumn than summer and winter. In particular, under the positive phase of the IOBM, significant positive sea ice anomalies occur in the Bellingshausen and northern Weddell Seas, in contrast to negative anomalies in the Amundsen Sea, the southern Atlantic Ocean, and the coastal seas off Dronning Maud Land. This teleconnection is established by planetary wavetrains excited over the tropical Indian Ocean and the tropical Pacific Ocean and is modulated by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation. The IOBM‐related Antarctic sea ice anomalies are largely consistent with those of the anomalous surface air temperature and wind fields associated with the IOBM.

We present an explanation for the sea ice concentration trends in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean (PSSO) in austral autumn (April‐June) during 1979–2018. Sea ice has decreased in the Bellingshausen Sea and increased in the Ross Sea, concurrently with a negative trend in the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO). SPO statistically explains 43% of the sea ice concentration trend averaged over PSSO. Convective activities over East Africa and the southwestern Indian Ocean, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and extratropical processes excite a wavetrain that propagates from the Indian Ocean to the Southern Ocean and South America. The wavetrain contributes to the decrease of the autumn SPO index, which influences sea ice changes over PSSO. During the negative phase of SPO, an anomalous surface anticyclonic wind field over high‐latitude South Pacific Ocean generates anomalous sea ice concentrations via heat advection and wind forcing on ice drift.

The increased extreme warm and decreased extreme cold temperature events across the Arctic strongly influence the natural environment as well as the societal activities. This study investigates temporal and spatial variability of wintertime extreme high and low temperature events defined by the 95 and 5% percentiles across the Arctic and subarctic regions, respectively (north of 60°N) using data from 238 stations in the Global Summary of the Day for the period 1979–2016. Empirical orthogonal function analyses indicate that the first modes (which account for 30–35% of the total variance) are out‐of‐phase between northern Europe, western and central Russia, and northeastern North America, and that this appears to be related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Northern Atlantic Oscillation. The second modes explain about 8% of the total variance. During the positive phase of the first and second modes the anomalous northeasterly and northerly winds decrease Arctic extreme high and increase extreme low temperature occurrences; while the anomalous southerly and southwesterly winds have the opposite effect. Symmetric and asymmetric effects of the AO index on extreme temperature events refer to the difference and sum between the composite of its positive and negative phases. The symmetric components of the spatial patterns are similar to those of the first modes. The asymmetric components occur mainly over western and central Russia for extreme high and low temperatures, respectively. In addition the impacts of six other large‐scale climate modes are also explored.

Applying the daily ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016, we found that widespread cold (warm) wintertime extreme events in Northern Europe occurred most frequently in winter 1984-1985 (2006-2007). These events often persisted for multiple days, and their primary drivers were the pattern of atmospheric large-scale circulation, the direction of surface wind and the downward longwave radiation. Widespread cold extremes were favoured by the Scandinavian Pattern and Ural Blocking, associated with advection of continental air-masses from the east, clear skies and negative anomalies in downward longwave radiation. In the case of widespread warm extremes, a centre of low pressure was typically located over the Barents Sea and a centre of high pressure over Central Europe, which caused south-westerly winds to dominate over Northern Europe, bringing warm, cloudy air masses to Northern Europe. Applying Self-Organizing Maps, we found out that thermodynamic processes explained 80% (64%) of the decreasing (increasing) trend in the occurrence of extreme cold (warm) events. The trends were due to a combined effect of climate warming and internal variability of the system. Changes in cases with a high-pressure centre over Iceland were important for the decreased occurrence of cold extremes over Northern Europe, with contribution from increasing downward long-wave radiation and south-westerly winds. The largest contribution to the increased occurrence of widespread warm extremes originated from warming and increased occurrence of the Icelandic low.